{"id":27719,"date":"2023-06-04T22:06:26","date_gmt":"2023-06-04T16:36:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=27719"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:33","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=27719","title":{"rendered":"Full Fledged El Nino Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon Season 2023 &#8211; NOAA Criteria Requires ONI >= +0.5\u00baC For A Period Of At Least 5 Consecutive Overlapping 3-Month Seasons"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Full Fledged El Nino Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon Season 2023 &#8211; NOAA Criteria Requires ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC For A Period Of At Least 5 Consecutive Overlapping 3-Month Seasons<br \/>\nNOAA \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 2023 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0<\/h4>\n<h4>Enso Status on 4th June 2023<\/h4>\n<p>Enso Neutral conditions have prevailed for the last three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI at -0.1\u00baC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.1\u00baC.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Ashok Patel&#8217;s Analysis &amp; Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<p>Enso Neutral conditions have prevailed for the last three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI at -0.1\u00baC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.1\u00baC. The Nino3.4 SST March 2023 was +0.13\u00baC and April was +0.39\u00baC. Assuming very speedy heating of the Nino3.4 region, the earliest an El Nino thresh hold can be achieved would be end of June 2023 if the Nino3.4 SST for June reaches\/crosses +0.84\u00baC, so that AMJ ONI can reaches\/crosses +0.5\u00baC. NOAA criteria stipulates that a Full fledged El Nino requires five 3-monthly seasons with ONI =&gt; 0.5C, which can only be achieved earliest at the end of October 2023 if the AMJ ONI can achieve =&gt; +0.5\u00baC. Hence it can be concluded that a full fledged El Nino is not possible during the Indian Southwest Monsoon season which starts from June 2023 and ends at the end of September 2023.<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Indian Monsoon &amp; Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n<p>Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +106% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2022. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: 20px;\">\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 :<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe 3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0abe \u0a8f\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0a82\u0aa1\u0ac0\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 JFM ONI -0.4\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7, FMA ONI -0.1\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 MAM 2023 ONI +0.1\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. Nino3.4 SST March 2023 +0.13\u00baC \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 April +0.39\u00baC \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. Nino3.4 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0a9d\u0aa1\u0aaa \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a97\u0ab0\u0aae \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2023 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae\u0acb \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0a86\u0ab5\u0abe 5 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0a9c\u0ab3\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 2023 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0a9c\u0ab6\u0ac7. (\u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2023)<br \/>\n<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n<p>NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n<p>CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<b>Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(<b>CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n<p><strong>The last La Nina 2021-23 ONI Index were <\/strong><strong>JAS 2021 -0.5\u00baC ASO 2021 -0.7\u00baC SON 2021 -0.8\u00baC, OND 2021 -1.0\u00baC, NDJ 2021 -1.0\u00baC, DJF 2022 -1.0\u00baC, JFM 2022 -0.9\u00baC, FMA 2022 -1.0\u00baC, MAM 2022 -1.1\u00baC, AMJ 2022 -1.0\u00baC, MJJ 2022 -0.9\u00baC, JJA -0.8\u00baC, JAS 2022 -0.9\u00baC, ASO 2022 -1.0\u00baC, SON 2022 -1.0\u00baC, OND 2022 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2023 -0.8\u00baC, DJF 2023 -0.7\u00baC and the Current Enso Neutral ONI Index are JFM 2023 -0.4\u00baC, FMA 2023 -0.1\u00baC, MAM 2023 +0.1\u00baC\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows<br \/>\nEnso Neutral Condition Exists End Of May 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=27778\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-27778\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-27778\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Enso_May_2023-1024x774.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Enso_May_2023-1024x774.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Enso_May_2023-300x227.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Enso_May_2023-768x581.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Enso_May_2023.jpg 1255w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n<pre>Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021   7   26.90   27.29   -0.39\r\n2021   8   26.32   26.86   -0.53\r\n2021   9   26.16   26.72   -0.55\r\n2021  10   25.78   26.72   -0.94\r\n2021  11   25.76   26.70   -0.94\r\n2021  12   25.54   26.60   -1.06\r\n2022   1   25.61   26.55   -0.95\r\n2022   2   25.88   26.76   -0.89\r\n2022   3   26.33   27.29   -0.97\r\n2022   4   26.72   27.83   -1.11\r\n2022   5   26.83   27.94   -1.11\r\n2022   6   26.98   27.73   -0.75\r\n2022   7   26.60   27.29   -0.70\r\n2022   8   25.88   26.86   -0.97\r\n2022   9   25.65   26.72   -1.07\r\n2022  10   25.73   26.72   -0.99\r\n2022  11   25.80   26.70   -0.90\r\n2022  12   25.75   26.60   -0.86\r\n2023   1   25.84   26.55   -0.71\r\n2023   2   26.30   26.76   -0.46\r\n2023   3   27.19   27.29   -0.11\r\n2023   4   27.96   27.83    0.13\r\n2023   5   28.33   27.94    0.39<\/pre>\n<h4>Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/h4>\n<h4><strong>Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 30th May 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ENSO-neutral conditions are observed.*<br \/>\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.<br \/>\nA transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Ni\u00f1o persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.*<\/p>\n<p>* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association<br \/>\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"block-50\">\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<p>30 Days average SOI was -16.18 at the end of May 2023 and was -17.54 on 3rd June 2023 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.15 on 3rd May 2023.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=27764#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-27764\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-27764\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SOI-Paddock-030623.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SOI-Paddock-030623.png 960w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SOI-Paddock-030623-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SOI-Paddock-030623-768x320.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<h4>SOI Monthly graph up to May 2023 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=27760#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-27760\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-27760\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SOI-2023.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"454\" height=\"340\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #222222; font-size: 1.5rem;\">As per BOM, Australia:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"block-50\">\n<p>The 30-day SOI has maintained a negative value over the past fortnight, and both the 30-day and the 90-day SOI continue to demonstrate a gradual decreasing trend. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 1st June 2023 was -19.1<\/p>\n<p>Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=27765#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-27765\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-27765\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-soi30-010623.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-soi30-010623.png 576w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-soi30-010623-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>As per BOM \u2013 Australia 23rd May 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewContent\" class=\"block-80 print-block-100\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\">\n<figure role=\"group\">\n<h4><strong>Enso Outlook<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewContent\" class=\"block-80 print-block-100\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<div class=\"block-100\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<div class=\"box-graphic block-25 float-right\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\">\n<figure class=\"\">\n<div id=\"ensoStatus\">\n<h4>El Ni\u00f1o WATCH \u2013 eastern tropical Pacific warming but little atmospheric response<\/h4>\n<div class=\"box-graphic block-25 float-right\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO-neutral (neither La Ni\u00f1a nor El Ni\u00f1o). Sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the west and the east of the tropical Pacific. While all international climate models indicate it is very likely that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Ni\u00f1o thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter, an atmospheric response is also required for an El Ni\u00f1o to be declared. Thus far, little shift has been observed in atmospheric ENSO indicators with trade winds and cloudiness patterns in the Pacific remaining indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions. The 30-day SOI has dropped below the El Ni\u00f1o threshold, but sustained values are required for it to be considered a part of an El Ni\u00f1o response.<\/p>\n<p>The ENSO Outlook remains at El Ni\u00f1o WATCH. This indicates there is an increased risk of an El Ni\u00f1o occurring this year, at least double the usual chance. History shows that when the ENSO Outlook has reached El Ni\u00f1o WATCH, El Ni\u00f1o has subsequently developed in about half of those years.<\/p>\n<p>International Climate Models suggest further warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely. By July, all surveyed models indicate El Ni\u00f1o thresholds for sea surface temperatures will be met or exceeded. El Ni\u00f1o typically suppresses rainfall in eastern Australia during the winter and spring months.<\/p>\n<p>(Note: winter and spring months are with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=27761#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-27761\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-27761\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-23-May-2023.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-23-May-2023.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-23-May-2023-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/BOM-sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-23-May-2023-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"box-centre\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"block-100\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"block-100\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=19592\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Read Comment Policy \u2013 \u0a95\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acb<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=16444\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress \u2013 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aab\u0abe\u0a88\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9a\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Akila_050623.jpg\">Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 5th June 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/\">Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th June 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Full Fledged El Nino Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon Season 2023 &#8211; NOAA Criteria Requires ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC For A Period Of At Least 5 Consecutive Overlapping 3-Month Seasons NOAA \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0 <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=27719\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27719\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}