\nUsing NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping <\/strong>3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than or equal to <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC. El Nino has continued during April 2019 with the sixth 3-monthly season of FMA 2019 at <\/strong>+0.8\u00baC. The last two Nino3.4 SST anomaly for <\/strong>March is <\/strong>+0.90\u00baC and April is <\/strong>+0.72\u00baC. Even if the Nino3.4 SST anomaly of May is around 0.0<\/strong>\u00baC, the MAM ONI Index would be <\/strong>greater than or equal to <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC, and so El Nino is expected to continue during May 2019.<\/strong>
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\nBased on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n\n <\/p>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 :
\n<\/strong><\/p>\nNOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0aa4\u0a83 \u0aa2\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7. FMA 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.8\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82.\u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a +0.90\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 +0.72\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST +0.0\u00baC \u0a86\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 MAM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aac\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7.
\n<\/strong>
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\nNOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n
Current El Nino 2018-19 all ONI Index are SON 2018 +0.7\u00baC, OND 2018 +0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2019 +0.8\u00baC, DJF 2019 +0.8\u00baC, JFM 2019 +0.8\u00baC and FMA 2019 +0.8\u00baC. Last three Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are February +0.83\u00baC, March +0.90\u00baC and April is +0.72\u00baC.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino 2018-19 Continues In April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/ElNino_2018-19.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13\r\n2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16\r\n2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04\r\n2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39\r\n2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84\r\n2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76\r\n2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83\r\n2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90\r\n2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72\r\n<\/pre>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
\nAs per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd May 2019 was -2.5 and is considered in the neutral zone.<\/p>\n
Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/soi30_030519.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
30 Days average SOI was -2.43 at the end of April 2019 and was -2.97 on 5th May 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.38<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SOI_Long_050519.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to April 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SOI_April_2019.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 29th April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory
\nEl Ni\u00f1o is present.*
\n<\/strong>
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. A weak El Ni\u00f1o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance).<\/p>\n* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\nAs per BOM – Australia 30th April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\nWhile most climate models forecast El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-like warmth to persist throughout the remainder of the austral autumn and early winter, the ocean is then likely to cool heading into spring. This could indicate that if El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o does develop, it is likely to be short lived and weak. Despite this cooling, four of the eight surveyed\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0forecast El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-like warmth in September.<\/p>\nNote that model accuracy when forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year, due to the natural cycle of ENSO. Forecast accuracy improves for outlooks issued in June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n(Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/20190430.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Expected To Be Declared End Of March 2019”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enso Status on 5th May 2019 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : Using NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping 3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18503\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 : NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0aa4\u0a83 \u0aa2\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7. FMA 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.8\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82.\u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a +0.90\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 +0.72\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST +0.0\u00baC \u0a86\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 MAM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aac\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aae\u0ac7 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7. The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n Current El Nino 2018-19 all ONI Index are SON 2018 +0.7\u00baC, OND 2018 +0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2019 +0.8\u00baC, DJF 2019 +0.8\u00baC, JFM 2019 +0.8\u00baC and FMA 2019 +0.8\u00baC. Last three Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are February +0.83\u00baC, March +0.90\u00baC and April is +0.72\u00baC.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd May 2019 was -2.5 and is considered in the neutral zone.<\/p>\n Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -2.43 at the end of April 2019 and was -2.97 on 5th May 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.38<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association While most climate models forecast El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-like warmth to persist throughout the remainder of the austral autumn and early winter, the ocean is then likely to cool heading into spring. This could indicate that if El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o does develop, it is likely to be short lived and weak. Despite this cooling, four of the eight surveyed\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0forecast El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-like warmth in September.<\/p>\n Note that model accuracy when forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year, due to the natural cycle of ENSO. Forecast accuracy improves for outlooks issued in June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n (Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enso Status on 5th May 2019 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : Using NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping 3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18503\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino 2018-19 Continues In April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13\r\n2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16\r\n2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04\r\n2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39\r\n2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84\r\n2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76\r\n2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83\r\n2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90\r\n2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to April 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 29th April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEl Ni\u00f1o is present.*
\n<\/strong>
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. A weak El Ni\u00f1o is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance).<\/p>\n
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM – Australia 30th April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Expected To Be Declared End Of March 2019”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
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