\nUsing NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event expected to start at the end of March 2019 since already four consecutive overlapping <\/strong>3-monthly seasons have had ONI of greater than or equal to <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC. The fifth 3-monthly season of JFM 2019 is also expected to be <\/strong>greater than or equal to <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC, thereby a El Nino will be declared.<\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\nWith DJF 2019 ONI at +0.8\u00baC, a total of Four consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons have positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o JFM 2019 ONI needs to be greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. The JFM 2019 ONI will be calculated from Nino3.4 SST anomaly for January at +0.76\u00baC and February at +0.78\u00baC and so even if March SST anomaly stands at +0.0\u00baC, yet the JFM 2019 ONI will remain greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. A weak El Nino will be declared as per NOAA criteria at the end of March 2019, having fulfilled by then the five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons with ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.<\/p>\n
Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India, however, that information is not available.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n\n <\/p>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 :
\n<\/strong><\/p>\nNOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0aa4\u0a83 \u0aa2\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0aae\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 JFM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0aa3 +0.5\u00b0C \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ac1\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 +0.76\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aab\u0ac7\u0aac\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 +0.78\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST +0.0\u00baC \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 JFM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aac\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n
\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0a89\u0aaa\u0ab2\u0aac\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h4>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/h4>\n
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\nThe SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\nNOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n
Last five ONI Index are ASO 2018 +0.4\u00baC, SON 2018 +0.7\u00baC, OND 2018 +0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2019 +0.8\u00baC and DJF 2019 +0.8\u00baC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is +0.78\u00baC.\u00a0 Hence, four consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons have had a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o JFM 2019 ONI needs to be greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. The JFM 2019 ONI will be calculated from Nino3.4 SST anomaly for January at +0.76\u00baC and February at +0.78\u00baC and so even if March SST anomaly stands at +0.0\u00baC, yet the JFM 2019 ONI will remain greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. An El Nino will be declared as per NOAA criteria at the end of March 2019, having fulfilled then the five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons with ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows<\/h4>\nFour Consecutive Overlappng 3-monthly Seasons Having ONI Greater Than +0.5\u00baC<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/ONI_DJF_2019.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13\r\n2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16\r\n2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04\r\n2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39\r\n2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84\r\n2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76\r\n2019 2 27.45 26.66 0.78\r\n<\/pre>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
\nAs per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd March 2019 was -12.5 and is in the El Nino range.<\/p>\n
Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/soi30_030319.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
30 Days average SOI was -14.62 at the end of February 2019 and was -14.1 on 5th March 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -2.72.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/download_Soi_050319.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to February 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/SOI_February_2019.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 4th March 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are present.*<\/p>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
\nThe pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. Weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to continue through the Northern
\nHemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).*<\/p>\n
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\nAs per BOM – Australia 31st July 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\nFive of the eight surveyed\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0predict sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at or above El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o thresholds for March. Four of the models anticipate SSTs will remain above El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o thresholds until at least July.<\/p>\nWhile three models anticipate a decline in SSTs over autumn and early winter, the majority of models indicate SSTs are likely to remain similar to current values or will see further warming of Pacific surface waters.<\/p>\n
It should be noted that model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year, due to the natural cycle of ENSO, and this may be contributing to the difference in outlooks across the models. Outlooks skill improves for outlooks issued from May.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n(Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/20190305.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Akila_060319-1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/SanjSamachar_060319.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAll earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\nClick here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enso Status on 5th March 2019 El Nino is expected to be declared at the end of March 2019 as per NOAA criteria. Currently the developing phase of El Nino 2018-19 continues since already four consecutive 3-monthly seasons have had Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 : NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0aa4\u0a83 \u0aa2\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0aae\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 JFM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0aa3 +0.5\u00b0C \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ac1\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 +0.76\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aab\u0ac7\u0aac\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 +0.78\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST +0.0\u00baC \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 JFM 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aac\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n \u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0a89\u0aaa\u0ab2\u0aac\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are ASO 2018 +0.4\u00baC, SON 2018 +0.7\u00baC, OND 2018 +0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2019 +0.8\u00baC and DJF 2019 +0.8\u00baC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is +0.78\u00baC.\u00a0 Hence, four consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons have had a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o JFM 2019 ONI needs to be greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. The JFM 2019 ONI will be calculated from Nino3.4 SST anomaly for January at +0.76\u00baC and February at +0.78\u00baC and so even if March SST anomaly stands at +0.0\u00baC, yet the JFM 2019 ONI will remain greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. An El Nino will be declared as per NOAA criteria at the end of March 2019, having fulfilled then the five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons with ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd March 2019 was -12.5 and is in the El Nino range.<\/p>\n Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -14.62 at the end of February 2019 and was -14.1 on 5th March 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -2.72.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o conditions are present.*<\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association Five of the eight surveyed\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0predict sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at or above El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o thresholds for March. Four of the models anticipate SSTs will remain above El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o thresholds until at least July.<\/p>\n While three models anticipate a decline in SSTs over autumn and early winter, the majority of models indicate SSTs are likely to remain similar to current values or will see further warming of Pacific surface waters.<\/p>\n It should be noted that model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year, due to the natural cycle of ENSO, and this may be contributing to the difference in outlooks across the models. Outlooks skill improves for outlooks issued from May.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n (Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enso Status on 5th March 2019 El Nino is expected to be declared at the end of March 2019 as per NOAA criteria. Currently the developing phase of El Nino 2018-19 continues since already four consecutive 3-monthly seasons have had Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/h4>\n
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows<\/h4>\n
Four Consecutive Overlappng 3-monthly Seasons Having ONI Greater Than +0.5\u00baC<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13\r\n2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16\r\n2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04\r\n2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39\r\n2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84\r\n2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76\r\n2019 2 27.45 26.66 0.78\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to February 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 4th March 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nThe pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. Weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to continue through the Northern
\nHemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).*<\/p>\n
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM – Australia 31st July 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nAll earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n