{"id":17722,"date":"2018-09-05T19:14:11","date_gmt":"2018-09-05T13:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=17722"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:34","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:34","slug":"much-hyped-el-nino-has-not-and-will-not-materialize-during-indian-summer-monsoon-2018-enso-neutral-conditions-continues-in-august-oni-index-is-just-0-1-c-for-jja-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=17722","title":{"rendered":"Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 &#8211; Enso Neutral Conditions Continues In August &#8211; ONI Index is Just +0.1 C For JJA 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Enso Status on 5th September 2018<\/h4>\n<h4>Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails August 2018<\/h4>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<p>How ONI is determined:<\/p>\n<p>The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/data-access\/marineocean-data\/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v5\">here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.<br \/>\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ONI_change.shtml\">here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n<p>CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>Last five ONI Index are FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC, MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC, AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC, MJJ 2018 +0.1\u00baC and JJA 2018 +0.1\u00baC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is +0.04\u00baC and the calculated ONI JJA 2018 is +0.1\u00baC, though positive\u00a0but in neutral zone. Hence ENSO neutral conditions continues to exist.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">La Nina event 2017-18 had officially ended at the end of April 2018 (FMA 2018). ENSO neutral conditions exists since then. <\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\">Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows ENSO Neutral Conditions Continues JJA 2018 Season<\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=17709\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17709\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17709\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/ONI_JJA_2018.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"750\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/ONI_JJA_2018.jpg 972w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/ONI_JJA_2018-300x231.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/ONI_JJA_2018-768x593.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/a><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n<pre>Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016   8   26.28   26.91   -0.63\r\n2016   9   26.15   26.80   -0.65\r\n2016  10   25.98   26.75   -0.78\r\n2016  11   25.95   26.75   -0.80\r\n2016  12   26.10   26.65   -0.55\r\n2017   1   26.12   26.45   -0.33\r\n2017   2   26.68   26.66    0.02\r\n2017   3   27.33   27.21    0.12\r\n2017   4   28.04   27.73    0.30\r\n2017   5   28.30   27.85    0.45\r\n2017   6   28.06   27.65    0.41\r\n2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28\r\n2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21\r\n2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51\r\n2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60\r\n2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01\r\n2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.04\r\n2018   1   25.58   26.45   -0.88\r\n2018   2   25.98   26.66   -0.68\r\n2018   3   26.50   27.21   -0.71\r\n2018   4   27.32   27.73   -0.41\r\n2018   5   27.74   27.85   -0.11\r\n2018   6   27.76   27.65    0.13\r\n2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16\r\n2018   8   26.94   26.91    0.04\r\n<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"block-50\">\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\">As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n<p>The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 2nd September was -5.3 and is within the neutral range.<\/p>\n<p>Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=17702#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17702\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17702\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/soi30_020918.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/soi30_020918.png 576w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/soi30_020918-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"color: #222222;\"><\/h4>\n<h4>Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<p>30 Days average SOI was -6.27 at the end of August 2018 and was -5.03 on 4th September 2018 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -3.4.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=17703#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17703\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17703\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/download_040918.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1163\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/download_040918.png 1163w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/download_040918-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/download_040918-768x330.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/download_040918-1024x440.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1163px) 100vw, 1163px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4>SOI Monthly graph up to August 2018 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=17675#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17675\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17675\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/2018_August.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"565\" height=\"423\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 6th August 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*<br \/>\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.<br \/>\nThere is ~60% chance of El Ni\u00f1o in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.<\/p>\n<p>* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association<br \/>\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>As per BOM &#8211; Australia 31st July 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4>ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewContent\" class=\"block-80 print-block-100\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\"><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">All of the surveyed international\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/model-summary\/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean\">climate models<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">\u00a0predict further warming of central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the coming months. All of the models suggest El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o thresholds are likely to be reached by the end of spring, with the majority suggesting values will remain at or above the threshold into early 2019.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"block-100\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<p>(Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=17705#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17705\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17705\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180828.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180828.sstOutlooks_nino34.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180828.sstOutlooks_nino34-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/20180828.sstOutlooks_nino34-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Ashok Patel&#8217;s Analysis &amp; Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Using NOAA Criteria,\u00a0a full-fledged El Nino event is rules out during the Indian Summer Monsoon. Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from<\/strong><strong>\u00a0May<\/strong><strong>\u00a02018 (MAM 2018) up to the latest 3-monthly season\u00a0<\/strong><strong>JJA 2018\u00a0<\/strong><strong>at +0.1\u00baC.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">La Nina event 2017-18 had officially ended at the end of April 2018 (FMA 2018) as per NOAA criteria.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Last five ONI Index are FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC,\u00a0MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC,\u00a0AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC, MJJ 2018 +0.1\u00baC and JJA 2018 +0.1\u00baC. The last three 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index\u00a0indicates Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from May 2018. Latest being August 2018 SST anomaly for Nino 3.4 for is +0.04\u00baC.<\/p>\n<p>Hence, currently neither Nino 3.4 SST anomaly nor the last ONI index has even reached the El Nino thresh hold for single month or a single 3-monthly seasons respectively.<\/p>\n<p>The last two Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are July at +0.16\u00baC and August at +0.04\u00baC. Possibility for First 3-monthly season to reach El Nino thresh hold requires the ONI reaches +0.5\u00baC from the current +0.1\u00baC level. Possibilty of El Nino thresh hold to be reached in September is very low since the chances of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly crossing +1.0\u00baC at the end of September is dismally low.<\/p>\n<p>Using NOAA criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event is rules out during the Indian Summer Monsoon, since there are now only one 3-monthly seasons left till end of September 2018, namely JAS 2018, and Indian Summer Monsoon normally comes to an end by then (September end). Full fledged El Nino requires El Nino thresh hold to continue for five consecutive 3-monthly seasons.<br \/>\nSimilarly a\u00a0full-fledged El Nino event is rules out during the year 2018.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: 20px;\">\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 :<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4><strong>NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 &#8216;\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb&#8217; \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. 2018 \u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">\u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0a86 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7: FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC,\u00a0MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC,\u00a0AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC,\u00a0MJJ 2018 +0.1\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 JJA 2018 +0.1\u00baC. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 JJA 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.1\u00b0C, \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0\u0aae\u0ac7 2018. \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2018, \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u00a0\u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 Enso \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0\u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 0.04\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82\u00a0\u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a89\u0a82\u0aac\u0ab0\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 +0.17\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7\u00a0\u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f +0.04\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0\u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 +1.0\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a89\u0a82\u0aac\u0ab0\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae\u0a9c \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 &#8216;\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb&#8217; \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u00a0\u0a8f\u0aae \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7\u00a0\u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7\u00a0\u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 1 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aac\u0abe\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 JAS 2018\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\u00a0\u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7\u00a0\u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0ac0 5\u00a0\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n<h4>Click here for Update\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=17300\">&#8220;ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018&#8221;<\/a><\/h4>\n<h4>Click here for Update\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=16950\">&#8220;Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018&#8221;<\/a><\/h4>\n<h4>Click here for Update\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=16176\">&#8220;Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018&#8221;<\/a><\/h4>\n<h4>Click here for Update\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=16093\">&#8220;Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018&#8221;<\/a><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enso Status on 5th September 2018 Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails August 2018 How ONI is determined: The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=17722\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17722\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}