The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC, JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC, FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC, MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC and AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is 0.11\u00baC and the calculated ONI AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC is negative but in neutral zone. Hence ENSO neutral conditions continues to exist.<\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 had officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018). ENSO neutral conditions exists since then. The last La Nina event was the second consecutive La Nina event, the first one was 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 1\u00a0July was \u22126.2, and the 90-day SOI was \u22120.8. The SOI has been within the neutral range since late April.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -7.63 at the end of June 2018 and was -6.27 on 6th July 2018 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -2.24.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association <\/p>\n All but one of the eight surveyed international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0predict further warming of central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the coming months.<\/p>\n During the remainder of the southern hemisphere winter, all models forecast central Pacific SSTs to remain within neutral values. However, five of the eight models reach El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o levels during spring, with a sixth model falling just short of the threshold value. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 had officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018) as per NOAA criteria, but did not last long.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC, JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC and FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC,\u00a0MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC,\u00a0AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC. The last two 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index\u00a0indicates Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from May 2018. June 2018 SST anomaly for Nino 3.4 for is 0.11\u00baC.<\/p>\n Hence, currently neither Nino 3.4 SST anomaly nor the last ONI index has even reached the El Nino thresh hold for single month or a single 3-monthly seasons respectively.<\/p>\n Using NOAA criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event is rules out during the Indian Summer Monsoon, since there are only three 3-monthly seasons left till end of September 2018, namely MJJ 2018, JJA 2018 & JAS 2018, and Indian Summer Monsoon normally comes to an end by then (September end). El Nino requires El Nino thresh hold to continue for five consecutive 3-month;y seasons.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0a86 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7: DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC, JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC and FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC,\u00a0MAM 2018 -0.4\u00baC,\u00a0AMJ 2018 -0.1\u00baC. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0AMJ 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.1\u00b0C, \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0\u0aae\u0ac7 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae Enso \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0aa8 2018 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 0.11\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82\u00a0\u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a89\u0a82\u0aac\u0ab0\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u2018\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\u2019 \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u00a0\u0a8f\u0aae \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7\u00a0\u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7\u00a0\u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aac\u0abe\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 MJJ 2018, JJA 2018 & JAS 2018\u00a0\u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\u00a0\u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7\u00a0\u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u00a0\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enso Status on 6th July 2018 Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails June 2018 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17001\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows ENSO Neutral Conditions Continues AMJ 2018 Season<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/ONI_AMJ_2018.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.11\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/soi30_010718.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/SOI_long_060718.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\nSOI Monthly graph up to June 2018 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/SOI_June_2018.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2nd July 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across he east-central Pacific Ocean.
\nENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Ni\u00f1o increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.<\/p>\n
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 3rd July 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
\n(Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/20180703.poama_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel\u2019s Final Note:
\n<\/strong>Using NOAA Criteria, Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from<\/strong>\u00a0May<\/strong>\u00a02018 (MAM 2018) with the latest 3-monthly season\u00a0<\/strong>AMJ 2018\u00a0<\/strong>at\u00a0-0.1\u00baC
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\nNOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2018 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac0.<\/strong><\/h4>\n