The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC, DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC, JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC and FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC. La Nina event was already in\u00a0existence and since the latest 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index is less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC it fulfills the NOAA criteria for continuance of La Nina at the end of April 2018.<\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018).\u00a0This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina event, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The\u00a030-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 2nd May 2018 was +2.4, while the 90-day SOI remains within the neutral range.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +4.02 at the end of April 2018 and was +0.85 on 4th May 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +2.55.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.* <\/p>\n All eight of the surveyed international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0indicate equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to rise further over the coming months. A neutral ENSO state is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and winter.<\/p>\n Two models indicate central Pacific sea surface temperatures may approach El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o threshold values during spring, however model outlooks produced during or spanning autumn have a lower accuracy than at other times of the year, and should be viewed with some caution. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC, DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC, JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC and FMA 2018 -0.6\u00baC. Since, the last consecutive 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC it fulfills the NOAA criteria for continuation of a weak La Nina at the end of April 2018.<\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018) and yet is in existence at the end of April 2018. This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/span><\/p>\n Theoretically a Full Fledged El Nino event is not possible to be established during the Indian Summer Monsoon, since there are only five 3-monthly seasons left till end of September 2018, namely MAM 2018, AMJ 2018, MJJ 2018, JJA 2018 & JAS 2018, and Indian Summer Monsoon normally comes to an end by then (September end). \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 OND 2017 at -0.9\u00b0C,\u00a0 NDJ 2018 at -1.0\u00b0C, DJF 2018 at -0.9\u00b0C, JFM 2018 at -0.8\u00b0C, and FMA 2018 at -0.6\u00b0C. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a02018 \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1\u00a0\u0a85\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abf\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab5 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n \u0ab8\u0ac8\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa4\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0\u00a0\u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aac\u0abe\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 MAM 2018, AMJ 2018, MJJ 2018, JJA 2018 & JAS 2018.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ENSO Status on 4th May 2018 Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018. 2018 \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u00a0\u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1\u00a0\u0a85\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abf\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab5 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7. The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1578,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-blog","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16201\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Continuance Of La Nina For FMA 2018 Season<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ONI_FMA_2018.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70\r\n2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99\r\n2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.27 27.73 -0.46\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/soi30_020518.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/download_SOI_040518.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to April 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/SOI_April_2018.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 30th April 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during the April-May, with ENSO-neutral then likely (greater than 50% chance) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 24th April 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
\n(Seasons cited by BOM above are with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/20180424.poama_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note:
\n<\/strong>Using NOAA Criteria A Weak<\/strong>\u00a0La Nina is yet in existence at the end of April<\/strong>\u00a02018 with the latest 3-monthly season\u00a0<\/strong>FMA 2018\u00a0<\/strong>at\u00a0-0.6\u00baC
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2018 \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1\u00a0\u0a85\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abf\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab5 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“La Nina Event 2017-18 Expected To Commence At The End Of March”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Three Consecutive 3-Monthly Seasons Have Oni -0.5\u00baC Or Below”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2\u00baC”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n