The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are SON 2017 -0.7\u00baC,\u00a0OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC, DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC and JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC. Since, five consecutive 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC it fulfills the NOAA Operational definition of a La Nina at the end of March 2018.<\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018).\u00a0This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina event, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 2nd April 2018 was +10.8, while the 90-day SOI remains within the neutral range.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +8.48 at the end of March 2018 and was +10.47 on 4th April 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +4.39.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.* <\/p>\n All eight of the surveyed international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0indicate equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to continue warming over the coming months. While two models suggest NINO3.4 will meet La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a thresholds in April, a neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and winter. The Bureau’s model predicts the equatorial Pacific will continue to warm throughout winter but remain within the neutral range.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are SON 2017 -0.7\u00baC,\u00a0OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC, DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC and JFM 2018 -0.8\u00baC. Since, five consecutive 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC it fulfills the NOAA Operational definition of a La Nina at the end of March 2018.<\/p>\n La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018). This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/span><\/p>\n It is surprising that BOM Australlia on 27th March 2018 says “El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation neutral”<\/p>\n \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97\u00a05 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae \u0a95\u0ac7 SON 2017 at -0.7\u00b0C,\u00a0OND 2017 at -0.9\u00b0C,\u00a0 NDJ 2018 at -1.0\u00b0C, DJF 2018 at -0.9\u00b0C and JFM 2018 at -0.8\u00b0C. \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina\u00a02018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82.<\/p>\n \u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe 27 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2018\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab9\u0aae\u0aa4 \u0a9b\u0ac1\u0a82.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ENSO Status on 4th April 2018 Full-fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018. \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 “\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe” \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82. The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Official La Nina Event Has Evolved JFM 2018<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ONI_JFM_2018.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016 2 29.00 26.66 2.34\r\n2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70\r\n2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99\r\n2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.44 27.21 -0.77\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/soi30_020418.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/SOI_download_040418.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to March 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/SOI_March_2018.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2nd April 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nA transition from La Ni\u00f1a to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 27th March 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
![\"NINO3.4](\"http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/enso\/wrap-up\/archive\/20180327.poama_nino34.png\" "\\"NINO3.4")
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note:
\n<\/strong>Using NOAA Criteria A\u00a0<\/strong>Full Fledged La Nina has evolved in\u00a0<\/strong>March 2018 with 3-monthly season\u00a0<\/strong>JFM 2018\u00a0<\/strong>at\u00a0-0.8\u00baC
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\n NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0<\/strong>\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina\u00a0<\/strong>2018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“La Nina Event 2017-18 Expected To Commence At The End Of March”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Three Consecutive 3-Monthly Seasons Have Oni -0.5\u00baC Or Below”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2\u00baC”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n