The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Enso neutral conditions have prevailed subsequent to the last 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are ASO 2017 -0.4\u00baC, SON 2017 -0.7\u00baC,\u00a0OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC and DJF\u00a02018 -0.9\u00baC. Now four 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are in the La Nina zone so an official La Nina event is expected at the end of March 2018.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 5th March 2018 is \u22122.3, which is within the neutral range. While the SOI fluctuates more during the southern hemisphere summer due to movement of tropical systems, it has spent most of 2018 to date within the neutral range.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -6.91 at the end of February 2018 and -2.84 on 6th March 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -0.35.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.*<\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A transition from La Ni\u00f1a to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).*<\/p>\n <\/p>\n All international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current event is likely near its end.<\/p>\n Four of the eight surveyed models maintain values close to La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a thresholds for March, but all models indicate equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to continue to warm over the coming months. Only one model anticipates NINO3.4 will meet La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a thresholds for May, and all models predict ENSO will be in a neutral phase during the southern hemisphere winter.<\/p>\n In order to consider 2017\u201318 a La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a year, NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than \u22120.8\u00a0\u00b0C need to be observed for at least three months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n The current SST February 2018 of Nino 3.4 region is at -0.87\u00b0C and so now last four ONI Index have La Nina thresh hold as SON 2017 at -0.7\u00b0C,\u00a0OND 2017 at -0.9\u00b0C,\u00a0 NDJ 2018 at -1.0\u00b0C and DJF 2018 at -0.9\u00b0C and so Enso Neutral conditions prevails. Potential La Nina event is expected to commence at the end of March 2018 since the next 3-monthly season namely JFM 2018 is very likely to remain equal to or below -0.5\u00b0C. Thereby a 2017-18 La Nina event is expected to commence at the end of 2018 March as per NOAA criteria.<\/p>\n It is surprising that BOM Australlia on 27th February says “La Ni\u00f1a retreats.”<\/p>\n Similarly also surprising to see that NOAA CPC\/NCEP update of 5th March says “A transition from La Ni\u00f1a to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season)”. NOAA’s contention is indeed strange. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe 4 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae \u0a95\u0ac7 SON 2017 at -0.7\u00b0C,\u00a0OND 2017 at -0.9\u00b0C,\u00a0 NDJ 2018 at -1.0\u00b0C and DJF 2018 at -0.9\u00b0C. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae\u0a9c \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0aae\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ac1\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac1\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina\u00a02018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ac1\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n \u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe 27 \u0aab\u0ac7\u0aac\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac La Nina \u0aaa\u0ac0\u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0a9f \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a96 5 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2018 \u0aac\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac La Nina \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa5\u0ac0 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0ac7 2018 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7. \u0a86 \u0aac\u0a82\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9c\u0a82\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a93 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aac\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 La Nina \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 NOAA \u0a95\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 “La Nina \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa5\u0ac0 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0ac7 2018 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7.”<\/p>\n \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac1 \u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2018 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 La Nina \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ENSO Status on 7th March 2018 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16009\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event Ending February 2018<\/h4>\n
(Potential La Nina At The End Of March 2018)<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ONI_DJF_2018.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016 2 29.00 26.66 2.34\r\n2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70\r\n2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99\r\n2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.87\r\n2018 2 25.96 26.66 -0.70\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/soi30_050318.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/download_060318_Long.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to February 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/2018_February.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 5th March 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 27th February 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20180227.poama_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note:
\n<\/strong>Using NOAA Criteria A\u00a0<\/strong>Full Fledged La Nina is expected to be declared at the<\/strong>\u00a0End Of March 2018.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nHow can there be a transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral when the La Nina event has not yet been declared officially? At least end of March 2018 is not expected to be in ENSO neutral zone.<\/p>\n\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :
\nNOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0<\/strong>\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina\u00a0<\/strong>2018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u00a0<\/strong>\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0\u00a0<\/strong>\u0aae\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Three Consecutive 3-Monthly Seasons Have Oni -0.5\u00baC Or Below”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2\u00baC”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n