The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are JAS 2017\u00a0-0.1\u00baC, ASO 2017 -0.4\u00baC, SON 2017 -0.7\u00baC,\u00a0OND 2017 -0.9\u00baC and NDJ 2018 -1.0\u00baC. Now three 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are in the La Nina zone and hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean yet continues to remain officially in ENSO Neutral zone, though leaning towards potential La Nina.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 28\u00a0January is +9.2 (90-day value +6.0). The 30-day SOI on 2nd February was +6.9 and has returned to positive zone after a brief fall into the negative range.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +8.93 at the end of January 2018 and +6.38 on 3rd February 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and has reentered the positive zone again after brief time in the negative zone.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.*<\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*<\/p>\n * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n International\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the equatorial Pacific sea surface is likely to warm in the coming months, returning to neutral values between late in the austral summer and mid-autumn. Only one out of the eight models maintains La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels into winter (June), while three models are in the neutral range by February. The Bureau’s model POAMA indicates a return to neutral values in April, though remains close to La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels until the end of winter.<\/p>\n In order to consider 2017\u201318 a La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a year, NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than \u22120.8\u00a0\u00b0C need to be observed for at least three months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The current SST January 2018 of Nino 3.4 region is at -0.9\u00b0C and so now last three ONI Index have La Nina thresh hold as SON 2017 at -0.7\u00b0C,\u00a0OND 2017 at -0.9\u00b0C and NDJ 2018 at -1.0\u00b0C and so yet Enso Neutral zone prevails though leaning towards a potential La Nina. The next two consecutive 3-monthly seasons namely DJF 2018 and JFM 2018 should manage to remain equal to or below -0.5\u00b0C, for a\u00a0Full fledged La Nina to be qualified as per NOAA criteria which translates to earliest La Nina at the end of March 2018.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 La Nina \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac La Nina \u0a8f\u0aa1\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf\u0a9d\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa6\u0abe\u0a9c \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a 2018 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 (NOAA, U.S. \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ); \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 La Nina \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 3 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 La Nina \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ENSO Status on 5th February 2018 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1578,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-blog","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15898\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event Ending January 2018<\/h4>\n
(Leaning Towards Potential La Nina)<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2018-1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2016 1 29.11 26.45 2.66\r\n2016 2 29.00 26.66 2.34\r\n2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70\r\n2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99\r\n2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02\r\n2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12\r\n2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30\r\n2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45\r\n2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41\r\n2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.55 26.45 -0.90\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/soi30_040218.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to January 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/SOI_January_2018.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 29th January 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 30th January 2018<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
\u00a0
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/20180130.poama_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note:
\n<\/strong>Using NOAA Criteria A\u00a0<\/strong>Full Fledged La Nina\u00a0<\/strong>Only\u00a0<\/strong>Possible by End Of March 2018 .<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :
\n\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0a9b\u0ac7 –\u00a0NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0<\/strong>\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 La Nina\u00a0\u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 <\/strong>2018 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0\u00a0<\/strong>\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0\u00a0<\/strong>\u0aae\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf<\/strong>.<\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2\u00baC”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“2016\/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n