The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.<\/p>\n Last five ONI Index are MAM 2017 +0.3\u00baC, AMJ 2017 +0.4\u00baC, MJJ 2017 +0.4\u00baC, JJA 2017 +0.1\u00baC and JAS 2017\u00a0-0.2\u00baC\u00a0 (CPC\/NOAA has it at -0.1\u00b0C ) hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 8th October is +9.1 (90-day value +6.6), having passed into the La Ni\u00f1a value range within the last week.<\/p>\n The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 14th October 2017 is +8.5 which is in the La Nina zone.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +6.16 at the end of September 2017 and +9.79 on 14th October 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.* There is an increasing chance(~55%-60%) of La Ni\u00f1a during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.*<\/p>\n * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n International\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further cooling of equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures is expected during Northern Hemisphere Autumn and into Northern Hemisphere Winter. All models anticipate that SSTs may approach or surpass La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a thresholds during Northern Hemisphere Autumn or early Northern Hemisphere Winter. However, only three models indicate that these SSTs will persist long enough to be classified as a La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a event.<\/p>\n The current SST of Nino 3.4 region is at -0.5\u00b0C\u00a0at and the last ONI Index available is JAS 2017 at -0.2\u00b0C (CPC\/NOAA has it at -0.1\u00b0C ) and is yet in the Enso Neutral zone.\u00a0 There is not a single 3-monthly seasonal period having ONI Index of -0.5\u00b0C or lower.\u00a0Hence, next Five 3-monthly seasons namely ASO 2017, SON 2017, OND 2017,\u00a0NDJ 2018 & DJF 2018 should manage to remain equal to or below -0.5\u00b0C, for a\u00a0Full fledged La Nina to be qualified as per NOAA criteria which translates to earliest at the end of February 2018.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ac9\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa6\u0abe\u0a9c \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2017 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ab8\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0ab6\u0ac7. \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aab\u0ac7\u0aac\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 2018 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 (NOAA, U.S. \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ) \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe 5 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab2\u0abe\u0a97\u0ab6\u0ac7.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ENSO Status on 15th October 2017 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15446\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending September 2017<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ONI_JAS_2017.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2015 10 29.07 26.75 2.32\r\n2015 11 29.41 26.75 2.67\r\n2015 12 29.26 26.65 2.60\r\n2016 1 29.11 26.45 2.66\r\n2016 2 29.00 26.66 2.34\r\n2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70\r\n2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99\r\n2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39\r\n2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44\r\n2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65\r\n2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78\r\n2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80\r\n2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55\r\n2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33\r\n2017 2 26.67 26.66 0.01\r\n2017 3 27.31 27.21 0.11\r\n2017 4 28.03 27.73 0.29\r\n2017 5 28.29 27.85 0.44\r\n2017 6 28.05 27.65 0.39\r\n2017 7 27.53 27.26 0.27\r\n2017 8 26.69 26.91 -0.22\r\n2017 9 26.30 26.80 -0.50\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/soi30_141017.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to September 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/SOI_September_2017.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 9th October 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
\nEL NI\u00d1O\/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC\u00a0<\/strong>DISCUSSION\u00a0<\/strong>issued by\u00a0<\/strong>CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER\/NCEP\/NWS\u00a0<\/strong>and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society<\/strong>
\n
\n<\/strong>12 October 2017
\n<\/strong>
\nENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong>
\n
\n<\/strong>Synopsis: La Ni\u00f1a conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and
\nwinter 2017-18.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 10th October 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Weaker trade winds stall cooling in tropical Pacific<\/strong>\u00a0– ENSO Outlook Inactive:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note: Full Fledged La Nina Possible Earliest End Of February 2018 Using NOAA Criteria.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :<\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“2016\/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n