{"id":14753,"date":"2017-08-04T10:42:27","date_gmt":"2017-08-04T05:12:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=14753"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:35","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:35","slug":"theoretically-el-nino-not-possible-during-2017-enso-neutral-conditions-prevails-with-mjj-2017-oni-index-at-0-3oc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=14753","title":{"rendered":"Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017 – ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With MJJ 2017 ONI Index At +0.3\u00baC"},"content":{"rendered":"

ENSO Status on 4th August 2017<\/h4>\n

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The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n

Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.<\/p>\n

ONI Index for DJF 2017 was -0.4\u00baC, JFM 2017 was -0.2\u00baC, FMA 2017 was +0.1\u00baC, MAM was +0.4\u00baC, AMJ was +0.4\u00baC and now the last ONI Index MJJ is +0.3\u00baC, hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.<\/p>\n

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Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending July 2017<\/h4>\n

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The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13\r\n2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45\r\n2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68\r\n2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95\r\n2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25\r\n2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24\r\n2016   1   28.95   26.61    2.33\r\n2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09\r\n2016   3   28.86   27.32    1.54\r\n2016   4   28.96   27.86    1.10\r\n2016   5   28.59   27.98    0.60\r\n2016   6   27.81   27.76    0.05\r\n2016   7   26.98   27.37   -0.39\r\n2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63\r\n2016   9   26.20   26.94   -0.74\r\n2016  10   26.04   26.91   -0.87\r\n2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93\r\n2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72\r\n2017   1   26.24   26.61   -0.37\r\n2017   2   26.63   26.80   -0.17\r\n2017   3   27.49   27.32    0.17\r\n2017   4   28.30   27.86    0.44\r\n2017   5   28.54   27.98    0.56\r\n2017   6   27.97   27.76    0.21\r\n2017   7   27.40   27.37    0.03\r\n<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
 <\/p>\n
\n
As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 30 July was +8.1 (90-day value \u22120.4). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October. However, recently they have shot up and flirting the positive zone.<\/p>\n
The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 31st July 2017 is +8.7 which is flirting the positive zone.<\/p>\n
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 <\/p>\n
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
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 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to July 2017 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
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 <\/p>\n
30 Days average SOI was +6.51 at the end of July 2017 and +8.01 on 2nd August 2017 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 31st July 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active<\/strong><\/p>\n
ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*<\/p>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
ENSO-Neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.*<\/p>\n
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 1st August 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\nENSO neutral conditions are likely to persist \u2013 ENSO Outlook Inactive:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\n
All eight of the international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until at least the end of 2017<\/p>\n
Ashok Patel\u2019s Final Note: Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During 2017 Using NOAA Criteria.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
The current SST of Nino 3.4 region is below +0.5\u00b0C\u00a0at +0.03\u00b0C and also the last ONI Index available is MJJ 2017 at +0.3\u00b0C which is yet in the Enso Neutral zone. The SST for August is not expected to increase by 1.0\u00b0C from the current +0.03\u00b0C, hence the ONI Index for JJA 2017 will be <\u00a00.5\u00b0C. Even if the ONI index of next Four 3-monthly seasons namely JAS 2017, ASO 2017, SON 2017 & OND 2017 manages to remain equal to or above\u00a00.5\u00b0C, yet it will not qualify for a Full fledged El Nino as per NOAA criteria during 2017, since the fifth 3-monthly season required for qualification of El Nino is NDJ 2018 which would be end of 2018 January.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :<\/h4>\n
\u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2017 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u00a0\u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 2017 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0ac8\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa4\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb (NOAA, U.S. \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ) \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 2017 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0a97\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0ab6\u0ac7.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cTheoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cFull Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201c2016\/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEnso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cFull Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cDemise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cModerate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cStrong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cNOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cYet A Weak El Nino \u2013 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cWeak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ENSO Status on 4th August 2017   The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14753\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}