\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
<\/h3>\n
Full fledged La Nina event had been confirmed at the end of January 2017 relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there were five 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.6\u00baC, ASO 2016 at -0.7\u00baC, SON 2016 at -0.8\u00baC, OND 2016 at -0.8\u00baC, NDJ 2017 at -0.7\u00baC\u00a0having La Nina threshold.<\/p>\n
ONI Index for DJF 2017 was -0.4\u00baC which was marginally lower than the La Nina thresh hold and hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean had entered ENSO Neutral zone.<\/p>\n
ONI Index for JFM 2017 is -0.2\u00baC which indicates the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean had remained in the ENSO Neutral zone.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Two Months Till End Of March 2017<\/h4>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 26\u00a0March is +5.6 (90-day value +2.1). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October.<\/p>\n The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 3rd April 2017 is 3.4 within the neutral ENSO range.<\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n SOI was 3.8 at the end of March 2017 and 0.59 on 5th March 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/p>\n ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central and east-central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Ni\u00f1o development into the fall.*<\/p>\n * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n The El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook<\/em> status is at El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o WATCH, indicating around a 50% chance of El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o developing in 2017.<\/p>\n Although an El Nino Watch remains as per BOM, the current SST of Nino 3.4 region is below normal at -0.02\u00b0C and also the last ONI Index available is JFM 2017 at -0.2\u00b0C which is yet in the Enso Neutral zone. The SST for April is not expected to reach 1.5 C and hence the ONI Index for FMA 2017 will be <\u00a00.5\u00b0C . Hence earliest 3-monthly season which can hypothetically reach\u00a00.5\u00b0C would be MAM 2017. If and only if the NINO 3.4 region heats up continuously for the next Four 3-monthly seasons namely AMJ 2017, MJJ 2017, JJA 2017 & JAS 2017 and if all the ONI indexes manages to remain equal to or above\u00a00.5\u00b0C, then it will qualify for a Full fledged El Nino as per NOAA criteria. However, by that time the Southwest Monsoon 2017 would have already ended.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Status on 6th April 2017 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13559"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13559\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"ONI_JFM_2017\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/ONI_JFM_2017.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2015 3 27.79 27.32 0.47\r\n2015 4 28.59 27.86 0.73\r\n2015 5 28.83 27.98 0.85\r\n2015 6 28.70 27.76 0.94\r\n2015 7 28.50 27.37 1.13\r\n2015 8 28.47 27.02 1.45\r\n2015 9 28.62 26.94 1.68\r\n2015 10 28.86 26.91 1.95\r\n2015 11 29.14 26.88 2.25\r\n2015 12 29.04 26.80 2.24\r\n2016 1 28.95 26.61 2.33\r\n2016 2 28.89 26.80 2.09\r\n2016 3 28.86 27.32 1.54\r\n2016 4 28.96 27.86 1.10\r\n2016 5 28.59 27.98 0.60\r\n2016 6 27.81 27.76 0.05\r\n2016 7 26.98 27.37 -0.39\r\n2016 8 26.39 27.02 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.20 26.94 -0.74\r\n2016 10 26.04 26.91 -0.87\r\n2016 11 25.96 26.88 -0.93\r\n2016 12 26.08 26.80 -0.72\r\n2017 1 26.24 26.61 -0.37\r\n2017 2 26.63 26.80 -0.17\r\n2017 3 27.30 27.32 -0.02\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"soi30_020417\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/soi30_020417.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to March 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"SOI_March_2017\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/SOI_March_2017.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 3rd April 2017<\/strong>
\nENSO Alert System Status: Not Active<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 28th March 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o WATCH Remains:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Final Note: Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017 Using NOAA Criteria.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7 :
\n\u0a93\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 BOM \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac 2017 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u00a050% \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0a82\u0aa7\u0abe\u0aa3 \u0a86\u0aaa\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9b\u0aa4\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac1 \u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0aae\u0ac0 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb (NOAA, U.S. \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa \u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ) \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0. \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0\u00a0\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7\u00a0\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0a97\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0ab6\u0ac7.<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
El Nino Update In Akila Daily Dated 6th April 2017<\/h4>\n
![\"Akila_060417\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/Akila_060417.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nEl Nino Update In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 6th April 2017<\/h4>\n
![\"SanjSamachar_060417\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/SanjSamachar_060417.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAll earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“2016\/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"