{"id":13448,"date":"2017-03-06T09:50:20","date_gmt":"2017-03-06T04:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=13448"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:39","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:39","slug":"djf-2017-oni-index-at-0-4oc-marginally-lower-than-la-nina-threshhold-enso-neutral-conditions-over-nino-3-4-region-of-pacific-ocean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=13448","title":{"rendered":"DJF 2017 ONI Index At -0.4\u00baC, Marginally Lower Than La Nina Thresh Hold – ENSO Neutral Conditions Over Nino 3.4 Region Of Pacific Ocean"},"content":{"rendered":"

ENSO Status on 6th March 2017<\/h4>\n

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

Full fledged La Nina event had been confirmed at the end of January 2017 relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there are now five 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.6\u00baC, ASO 2016 at -0.7\u00baC, SON 2016 at -0.8\u00baC, OND 2016 at -0.8\u00baC, NDJ 2017 at -0.7\u00baC\u00a0having La Nina threshold. There is a variation of ONI index by 0.1 C for ASO 2016 where CPC reports -0.8\u00baC at the source cited.<\/p>\n

ONI Index for DJF 2017 is -0.4\u00baC which is marginally lower than the La Nina thresh hold and hence now the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean has entered ENSO Neutral zone.<\/p>\n

\u0a85\u0aae\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abf\u0a95\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe NOAA \u0aae\u0ac2\u0a9c\u0aac\u00a0\u0a93\u0ab8\u0aa8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7 (ONI )<\/strong><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ni\u00f1o 3.4 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aab\u0ab0\u0a95 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0a88 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac7 SST \u0a95\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9c\u0ac7 ENSO \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a86\u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac0, \u0aae\u0acb\u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9f\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 SST \u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a93\u0ab8\u0aa8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7 (ONI ) \u0a95\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NOAA \u0aae\u0ac2\u0a9c\u0aac \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ab2\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a93:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a93\u0ab3\u0a96 \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a8a\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acb \u0ab9\u0acb\u0a88.
\n\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a93\u0ab3\u0a96 \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7 -0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0acb \u0ab9\u0acb\u0a88.
\n\u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a86 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u00a0+\/- 0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1\u00a0\u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f\u00a0\u0a9c\u0ac7\u00a0\u00a03 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f.<\/p>\n

\u0a9c\u0acb\u0a95\u0ac7 CPC \u0aae\u0ac2\u0a9c\u0aac \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acb\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 SST \u0a85\u0ab8\u0a82\u0a97\u0aa4\u0abf +\/- 0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae\u0a9c \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0acb \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0acd\u0aae\u0acb\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aab\u0ac0\u0aaf\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0ab8\u0a82\u0a97\u0aa4 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0a82\u0a97\u0aa4\u0abf \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0aa3\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0a88.<\/p>\n

<\/h4>\n

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Commencement Of Enso Neutral Event at end of February 2017<\/h4>\n

\"ONI_DJF2017\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2015   2   27.25   26.80    0.45\r\n2015   3   27.79   27.32    0.47\r\n2015   4   28.59   27.86    0.73\r\n2015   5   28.83   27.98    0.85\r\n2015   6   28.70   27.76    0.94\r\n2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13\r\n2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45\r\n2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68\r\n2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95\r\n2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25\r\n2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24\r\n2016   1   28.94   26.61    2.33\r\n2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09\r\n2016   3   28.87   27.32    1.55\r\n2016   4   28.97   27.86    1.11\r\n2016   5   28.60   27.98    0.62\r\n2016   6   27.82   27.76    0.06\r\n2016   7   26.99   27.37   -0.38\r\n2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63\r\n2016   9   26.22   26.94   -0.72\r\n2016  10   26.06   26.91   -0.84\r\n2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93\r\n2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72\r\n2017   1   26.25   26.61   -0.37\r\n2017   2   26.65   26.80   -0.15\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 26\u00a0February is \u22121.2 (90 day value +0.4). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October.<\/p>\n
The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 3rd February 2017 is -2.0 within the neutral ENSO range.<\/p>\n
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n
\u00a0\"soi30_030317\"<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to February 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
\"2017_February_SOI\"<\/a><\/p>\n
SOI was -2.24 at the end of February 2017 and -2.36 on 2nd March 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 27th February 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Ni\u00f1a Advisory ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central and east-central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.*
\n* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 28th February 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/div>\n
El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o WATCH: likelihood of El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o in 2017 increases<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\n
The El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook<\/em> status has been upgraded to El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o WATCH, meaning\u00a0the likelihood of El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.<\/p>\n
Final Note:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Although an El Nino Watch has been issued by BOM, the current SST of Nino 3.4 region is below normal at -0.15\u00b0C and also the last ONI Index available is DJF 2017 at -0.4\u00b0C which is just\u00a00.1\u00b0C above the La Nina thresh hold of -0.5\u00b0C.\u00a0NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
\u0aa8\u0abf\u0a9a\u0acb\u0aa1:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ab0\u0aa8\u0ac5\u0ab6\u0aa8\u0ab2 \u0a8f\u0a9c\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a93 2017 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa4\u0acb \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ac1 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9c\u0ab3\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 DJF 2017 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 -0.4\u00b0C \u00a0\u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8\u00a0+0.5\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“2016\/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ENSO Status on 6th March 2017 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13448\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}