\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
<\/h3>\n
Full fledged La Nina event has been confirmed at the end of January 2017 relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there are now five 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.6\u00baC, ASO 2016 at -0.7\u00baC, SON 2016 at -0.8\u00baC, OND 2016 at -0.8\u00baC & NDJ 2017 at -0.7\u00baC having La Nina threshold. There is a variation of ONI index by 0.1 C in one instance as reported by CPC at the source cited.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Confirming La Nina Event at end of January 2017<\/h4>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 6th February 2017 is +0.2 within the neutral ENSO range. Currently there is a disconnect between SST anomaly and SOI.<\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n SOI was -0.31 at the end of January 2017 and -0.57 on 6th February 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017. * The El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range.<\/p>\n Climate model outlooks indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Most models surveyed expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm during this period, meaning La Ni\u00f1a is the least <\/em>likely scenario for winter\/spring 2017.\u00a0 It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n ENSO Status on 6th February 2017 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13361\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"ONI_NDJ_2017\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2017.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2015 1 27.22 26.61 0.61\r\n2015 2 27.25 26.80 0.45\r\n2015 3 27.79 27.32 0.47\r\n2015 4 28.59 27.86 0.73\r\n2015 5 28.83 27.98 0.85\r\n2015 6 28.70 27.76 0.94\r\n2015 7 28.50 27.37 1.13\r\n2015 8 28.47 27.02 1.45\r\n2015 9 28.62 26.94 1.68\r\n2015 10 28.86 26.91 1.95\r\n2015 11 29.14 26.88 2.25\r\n2015 12 29.04 26.80 2.24\r\n2016 1 28.94 26.61 2.33\r\n2016 2 28.89 26.80 2.09\r\n2016 3 28.87 27.32 1.55\r\n2016 4 28.97 27.86 1.11\r\n2016 5 28.60 27.98 0.62\r\n2016 6 27.82 27.76 0.06\r\n2016 7 26.99 27.37 -0.38\r\n2016 8 26.39 27.02 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.22 26.94 -0.72\r\n2016 10 26.06 26.91 -0.84\r\n2016 11 25.96 26.88 -0.93\r\n2016 12 26.08 26.80 -0.72\r\n2017 1 26.07 26.61 -0.55\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\u00a0
![\"soi30_02January_2017\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/soi30_02January_2017.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to January 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"SOI_JAN_2017\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/SOI_JAN_2017.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 6th February 2017<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.<\/strong>*<\/h4>\n
\n* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking \u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 31st January 2017
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\nEl Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation remains neutral<\/strong><\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“<\/a>Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016<\/a>\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016<\/a>\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"