\n\u0a9b\u0aa4\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3.<\/strong><\/p>\n
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930). NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The current El Nino event ended at the end of July 2016. Due to change in Climatology from 1981-2010 to 1986-2015 there was a change in the date as to when a full fledged El Nino was confirmed which was at the end of February 2015 considering the SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region based on Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 (ERSST.v4). The graph below shows that at the end of October 2016 there have been two 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.6\u00baC & ASO 2016 at -0.7\u00baC having La Nina threshold. Technically a full fledged La Nina can not develop during the year 2016, relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there are now only two 3-monthly seasons left after October 2016.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Oni Index for JAS 2016 was -0.5\u00baC and ONI Index for ASO 2016 as -0.7\u00baC, both are below -0.5\u00baC, the La Nina threshold which has been reached for just two consecutive 3-monthly seasons. Overall ENSO neutral conditions prevail till end of October 2016.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd November is -5.0 within the neutral ENSO range. SOI values have been plummeting from the high of +14 reached in first week of October 2016. Currently there is a disconnect between SST anomaly and SOI.<\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n SOI was -4.51 at the end of October 2016 and -4.44 on 4th Novemberr 2016 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Ni\u00f1a is favored to develop (~70% chance) during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) during winter 2016-17.*<\/p>\n * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking\u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.<\/p>\n Most climate models predict SSTs will remain cooler than average, but ENSO-neutral, through until the end of the 2016\u201317 summer. Only two of eight models suggest brief, weak La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels may occur towards the end of 2016. The ENSO Outlook remains at La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a WATCH.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016 Based On NOAA Criteria<\/p>\n ENSO Status on 5th November 2016 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 SST \u0a85\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 -0.5 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac7. \u0a9b\u0aa4\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3. The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has recently been changed from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph till October 2016<\/h4>\n
![\"oni_aso_2016\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ONI_ASO_2016.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2014 10 27.25 26.91 0.34\r\n2014 11 27.51 26.88 0.63\r\n2014 12 27.40 26.80 0.61\r\n2015 1 27.22 26.61 0.61\r\n2015 2 27.25 26.80 0.45\r\n2015 3 27.79 27.32 0.47\r\n2015 4 28.59 27.86 0.73\r\n2015 5 28.83 27.98 0.85\r\n2015 6 28.70 27.76 0.94\r\n2015 7 28.50 27.37 1.13\r\n2015 8 28.47 27.02 1.45\r\n2015 9 28.62 26.94 1.68\r\n2015 10 28.86 26.91 1.95\r\n2015 11 29.14 26.88 2.25\r\n2015 12 29.04 26.80 2.24\r\n2016 1 28.94 26.61 2.33\r\n2016 2 28.89 26.80 2.09\r\n2016 3 28.87 27.32 1.55\r\n2016 4 28.97 27.86 1.11\r\n2016 5 28.60 27.98 0.62\r\n2016 6 27.82 27.76 0.06\r\n2016 7 26.99 27.37 -0.38\r\n2016 8 26.39 27.02 -0.63\r\n2016 9 26.22 26.94 -0.72\r\n2016 10 26.06 26.91 -0.84\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
\u00a0
![\"soi30_03_november16\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/soi30_03_November16.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\nSOI Monthly graph up to October 2016 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"soi_oct_2016\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/SOI_Oct_2016.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 31st October 2016<\/strong><\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 25th October 2016
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\nPacific remains ENSO-neutral \u2013\u00a0A La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a WATCH remains in place.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cFull Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016<\/a>\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cDemise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cModerate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cStrong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cNOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cYet A Weak El Nino \u2013 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cWeak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"