\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has recently been changed from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
<\/h3>\n
The current El Nino event ended at the end of July 2016. Due to change in Climatology from 1981-2010 to 1986-2015 there is again a change in the date as to when a full fledged El Nino was confirmed which now stands as at the end of February 2015 considering the SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region based on Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 (ERSST.v4). The graph below shows that at the end of August 2016 an ENSO neutral conditions exists, the last available 3 monthly season being JJA 2016 which is -0.3\u00baC. Technically a full fledged La Nina can not develop during the year 2016, relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there has not been a single 3 -monthly season with La Nina thresh hold and now only four 3-monthly seasons are left after August 2016.<\/p>\n
\u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2016 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0ac0 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a96\u0aa4\u0aae \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb. \u00a0\u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u00a0\u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f 2016 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 ‘\u0a8f\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2’ \u0aaa\u0acb\u0a9d\u0abf\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0a9b\u0ac7. 2016 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac0\u0a9c \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 2016 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf \u0aac\u0aa8\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n June, July & August 2016 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the latest ONI Index for JJA 2016 as -0.3\u00baC. \u00a0Since the latest ONI Index is \u00a0below +0.5\u00baC and above -0.5\u00baC, ENSO neutral conditions prevail till end of August 2016.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 28 August 2016 is +4.9, within the neutral ENSO range. The 30-day SOI had dropped as low as +2.5 during the past fortnight. However, SOI was 7.2 on 4th September 2016.<\/p>\n Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Ni\u00f1a while sustained negative values below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n SOI was +4.67 at the end of August 2016 and +7.08 on 5th September 2016 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni\u00f1a is slightly favored to develop during August-October (ASO)2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Ni\u00f1a during the fall and winter 2016-17.*<\/p>\n * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking\u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n In the tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures are cooler than average, though remain well short of La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels. In the atmosphere, there has been little change in trade winds or cloudiness, indicating little or no coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. As a result, cool sub-surface temperatures have eased slowly towards normal. International climate models suggest neutral to weak La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels for the remainder of the year. A La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a WATCH remains in place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n El Nino Status on 6th September 2016 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12671\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph till August 2016<\/h4>\n
![\"ONI_JJA_2016\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/ONI_JJA_2016.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2014 8 26.90 27.02 -0.12\r\n2014 9 27.03 26.94 0.09\r\n2014 10 27.25 26.91 0.34\r\n2014 11 27.51 26.88 0.63\r\n2014 12 27.40 26.80 0.61\r\n2015 1 27.22 26.61 0.61\r\n2015 2 27.25 26.80 0.45\r\n2015 3 27.79 27.32 0.47\r\n2015 4 28.59 27.86 0.73\r\n2015 5 28.83 27.98 0.85\r\n2015 6 28.70 27.76 0.94\r\n2015 7 28.50 27.37 1.13\r\n2015 8 28.47 27.02 1.45\r\n2015 9 28.62 26.94 1.68\r\n2015 10 28.86 26.91 1.95\r\n2015 11 29.14 26.88 2.25\r\n2015 12 29.04 26.80 2.24\r\n2016 1 28.94 26.61 2.33\r\n2016 2 28.89 26.80 2.09\r\n2016 3 28.87 27.32 1.55\r\n2016 4 28.97 27.86 1.11\r\n2016 5 28.60 27.98 0.62\r\n2016 6 27.82 27.76 0.06\r\n2016 7 26.99 27.37 -0.38\r\n2016 8 26.47 27.02 -0.55\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
\u00a0
![\"soi30_August_2016\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/soi30_August_2016.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\nSOI Monthly graph up to August 2016 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"SOI_AUG_2016\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/SOI_AUG_2016.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 1st August 2016<\/strong><\/h4>\n
As per BOM -Australia 30th August 2016
\n<\/strong><\/h4>\nPacific remains ENSO-neutral \u2013\u00a0A La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a WATCH remains in place.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cDemise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cModerate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cStrong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cNOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cYet A Weak El Nino \u2013 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cWeak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0\u201cEl Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"