{"id":12453,"date":"2016-08-06T18:55:47","date_gmt":"2016-08-06T13:25:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=12453"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:36","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:36","slug":"demise-of-el-nino-brings-enso-neutral-conditions-at-end-of-july-2016-as-per-noaa-criteria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=12453","title":{"rendered":"Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016 As Per NOAA Criteria"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Nino Status on 5th August 2016<\/h4>\n

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930).
\nCPC uses current Climatology based on 1981-2010 which should have been changed to base years 1986-2015 as has been mentioned by them in their explanation about Climatology base years change\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n

The current El Nino event was confirmed at the end of August 2015 considering the SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region based on Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 (ERSST.v4). The graph below shows that at the end of July El Nino is officially over. ENSO neutral conditions started end of July 2016, the last available 3 monthly season being MJJ 2016. Considering the official NOAA definition for La Nina, technically it is not possible to have a full fledged La Nina during the 2016 Indian Monsoon season. If the August SST anomaly for Nino 3.4 region is above -1.0\u00baC then technically a full fledged La Nina is not even possible during the year 2016, because there will be just four 3-monthly seasons left after August.<\/p>\n

\u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2016 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0ac0 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a96\u0aa4\u0aae \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb. \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 ‘\u0a8f\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2’ \u0aaa\u0acb\u0a9d\u0abf\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0a9b\u0ac7. 2016 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac0\u0a9c \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb 3.4 SST -1.0 C \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a8a\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a9f\u0acb 2016 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0aa3 ‘\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe’ \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf \u0aac\u0aa8\u0ac7.<\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph till July 2016<\/h4>\n

\"ONI_MJJ_2016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years.<\/h4>\n
Period   Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2014   7   27.28   27.31   -0.02\r\n2014   8   26.90   26.96   -0.06\r\n2014   9   27.03   26.87    0.16\r\n2014  10   27.25   26.83    0.42\r\n2014  11   27.51   26.78    0.74\r\n2014  12   27.40   26.73    0.68\r\n2015   1   27.22   26.71    0.51\r\n2015   2   27.25   26.89    0.36\r\n2015   3   27.79   27.37    0.42\r\n2015   4   28.59   27.85    0.73\r\n2015   5   28.83   27.96    0.87\r\n2015   6   28.70   27.73    0.97\r\n2015   7   28.50   27.31    1.20\r\n2015   8   28.47   26.96    1.51\r\n2015   9   28.62   26.87    1.75\r\n2015  10   28.86   26.83    2.03\r\n2015  11   29.14   26.78    2.36\r\n2015  12   29.04   26.73    2.31\r\n2016   1   28.94   26.71    2.23\r\n2016   2   28.89   26.89    2.01\r\n2016   3   28.87   27.37    1.50\r\n2016   4   28.97   27.85    1.12\r\n2016   5   28.61   27.96    0.64\r\n2016   6   27.84   27.73    0.11\r\n2016   7   27.10   27.31   -0.21<\/pre>\n
May, June & July 2016 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the latest ONI Index for MJJ 2016 as +0.2\u00baC. \u00a0Since the latest ONI Index is \u00a0below +0.5\u00baC and above -0.5\u00baC, ENSO neutral condition has set in at the end of July 2016.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
As per BOM, Australia:\u00a0The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) up to 31 July 2016 is +4.2, which is well within the neutral ENSO range. The 30-day SOI has remained within the neutral range during the past month. Latest 30-day SOI is +5.0 on 3rd August 2016.<\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n
\"soi30_July_2016\"<\/a><\/h4>\n
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a, while sustained negative values below \u22127 may indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values of between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h3>\n
SOI Monthly graph up to July 2016 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
\"SOI_July_2016\"<\/a><\/p>\n
SOI was +3.70 at the end of July 2016\u00a0as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 1st August 2016<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni\u00f1a is favored to develop during August-October (ASO)2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Ni\u00f1a during the fall and winter 2016-17.*<\/p>\n
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking\u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n
As per BOM -Australia 2nd August 2016
\nLa Ni\u00f1a WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\n
Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Ni\u00f1a thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
All earlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June \u00a02105\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Update \u2013 5th May 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak El Nino Develops March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th March 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 7th February 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status \u2013 6th January 2015\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n
Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Status 6th November 2014\u201d<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
El Nino Status on 5th August 2016 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12453\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}