{"id":11572,"date":"2016-05-07T17:34:00","date_gmt":"2016-05-07T12:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=11572"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:37","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:37","slug":"strong-el-nino-persists-till-end-of-april-2016-expected-to-weaken-to-moderateweak-el-nino-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=11572","title":{"rendered":"Strong El Nino Persists Till End Of April 2016 \u2013 Expected To Weaken To Moderate\/Weak El Nino During May\/June 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Nino Status on 7th May 2016<\/h3>\n

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures were based on\u00a0ERSST.v3b till June 2015 and from then on wards are now based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.).<\/h3>\n

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/h3>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/h3>\n

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<\/h3>\n

The current El Nino event was confirmed at the end of August 2015 considering the SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region based on Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 (ERSST.v4). The graph below shows that currently, a\u00a0strong El Nino persists till end of April 2016, the last available 3 monthly season being FMA 2016.<\/h3>\n

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph till April 2016<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"ONI_FMA_2016\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years.<\/h3>\n
Period   Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n2014   4   27.73   27.85   -0.12\r\n2014   5   28.02   27.96    0.06\r\n2014   6   27.69   27.73   -0.04\r\n2014   7   27.28   27.31   -0.02\r\n2014   8   26.90   26.96   -0.06\r\n2014   9   27.03   26.87    0.16\r\n2014  10   27.25   26.83    0.42\r\n2014  11   27.51   26.78    0.74\r\n2014  12   27.40   26.73    0.68\r\n2015   1   27.22   26.71    0.51\r\n2015   2   27.25   26.89    0.36\r\n2015   3   27.79   27.37    0.42\r\n2015   4   28.59   27.85    0.73\r\n2015   5   28.83   27.96    0.87\r\n2015   6   28.70   27.73    0.97\r\n2015   7   28.50   27.31    1.20\r\n2015   8   28.47   26.96    1.51\r\n2015   9   28.62   26.87    1.75\r\n2015  10   28.86   26.83    2.03\r\n2015  11   29.14   26.78    2.36\r\n2015  12   29.04   26.73    2.31\r\n2016   1   28.94   26.71    2.23\r\n2016   2   28.89   26.89    2.00\r\n2016   3   28.87   27.37    1.50\r\n2016   4   29.03   27.85    1.18<\/pre>\n
February, March, & April 2016 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the latest ONI Index for FMA 2016 as\u00a0+1.6\u00baC. \u00a0Since the latest ONI Index is yet above +1.5\u00baC,\u00a0the El Nino is classified as a Strong El Nino till end of April 2016. The SST anomaly for April 2016 was +1.18\u00baC and so the next 3 months season ONI for MAM 2016 will remain below\u00a0+1.5\u00baC , thereby the El Nino will have weakened by next month.<\/h3>\n
 <\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/h3>\n
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Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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As per BOM, Australia: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to -22.0 at the end of April 2016 remaining firmly in the negative areas. The latest 30-day SOI value to 5th May 2016 is \u221218.4.<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
 <\/p>\n
\"soi30_050516\"<\/a><\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
\n
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a, while sustained negative values below \u22127 may indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o. Values of between about +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/h3>\n
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SOI Monthly graph till end of April 2016 was -19.07 as per The Long Paddock \u2013 Queensland Government. The Latest 6th May 2015 30 days SOI was -16.72 .<\/h3>\n
\"SOI_April_2016\"<\/a><\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
\u00a0Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2 May 2016<\/strong><\/h3>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory\/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch El Ni\u00f1o is present and is weakening.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Ni\u00f1a during the second half of the year.*<\/h3>\n
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking\u00a0here<\/a><\/h3>\n
As per BOM -Australia :\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o enters its final weeks<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The 2015\u201316 El Ni\u00f1o is in its last stages. Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Ni\u00f1a forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau\u2019s ENSO Outlook is at La Ni\u00f1a WATCH.<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
El Nino Status on 7th May 2016 The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11572"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11572\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}