{"id":7699,"date":"2015-03-06T10:43:11","date_gmt":"2015-03-06T05:13:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?page_id=7699"},"modified":"2015-03-10T13:47:12","modified_gmt":"2015-03-10T08:17:12","slug":"el-nino-status-6th-march-2015","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?page_id=7699","title":{"rendered":"El Nino Status – 6th March 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Nino Status on 6th March 2015<\/h3>\n

Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has\u00a0completed without a full fledged El Nino. Only two\u00a0consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons\u00a0SON and OND have had ONI index equal to or above +0.5\u00baC thresh hold till end of 2014. SON 2014= +0.5\u00baC and OND 2014 = +0.7\u00baC<\/h3>\n

At the end of January 2015 we had one more\u00a0overlapping 3-month season NDJ with ONI index equal to or above +0.5\u00baC\u00a0thresh hold. NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7\u00baC. The recent 3- month season the ONI index for DJF =0.6\u00baC. This makes total of four consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons\u00a0SON 2014, OND 2014, \u00a0NDJ 2015 & DJF 2015 with ONI index equal to or above +0.5\u00baC\u00a0thresh hold till end of February 2015. SON 2014= +0.5\u00baC\u00a0and OND 2014 = +0.7\u00baC, NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7\u00baC and DJF 2015 ONI=0.6\u00baC.<\/h3>\n

CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory on 5th March 2015.<\/h3>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00b0C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/h3>\n

The atmospheric features does not justify the declaration of El nino because SOI was +0.8 as per BOM.<\/h3>\n

The fact is that as per NOAA Officially El Nino is declared as per conditions laid down below:<\/h3>\n

El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC.
\nBy historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/h3>\n

\"ONI_Index_DJF_2015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

Southern Oscillation Index<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has moved to neutral zone from negative zone during the last week of February 2015. The latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending 1st March is +0.8 which denotes neutral zone.<\/h3>\n

\"soi30_01032015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

SOI Monthly graph till March 2015 – The Long Paddock – Queensland Government<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"2015_Feb_SOI\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Outlook:<\/h3>\n

If Nino 3-4 SST for March 2015 manages to stay reasonable positive, then the next 3 monthly seasonal period JFM will also fulfill the ONI of\u00a0+0.5\u00baC for declaring a full fledged El Nino. However, if JFM ONI does not make it to +0.5\u00baC or more there would be a washout for the currently developing El Nino.<\/h3>\n

One more interesting record would be that if indeed a full fledged El Nino develops within next one month, this El Nino would be the only El nino to have been declared at the end of March from 1950 on wards.<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Nino Status on 6th March 2015 Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has\u00a0completed without Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-7699","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7699\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}