![\"ONI_Index_NDJ_2015\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/ONI_Index_NDJ_2015.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h3>\nSouthern Oscillation Index<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\n
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable over the past fortnight, hovering around the boundary of neutral and El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o values. The latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending 1st February is \u22128.3.<\/h3>\n
El Nino Status on 7th February 2015 Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has\u00a0completed without Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-7605","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/7605\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph from The Long Paddock – Queensland Government<\/h3>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\nOutlook:<\/h3>\n
Although the SST has declined during the last month, the ONI Index for the next seasonal 3 months DJF is expected to equal or exceed the thresh hold of\u00a0+0.5\u00baC because the\u00a0Nino 3-4\u00a0SST for December is +0.75\u00baC & January is 0.54\u00baC so even if Nino 3-4 SST for February is only +0.10\u00baC, the fourth consecutive seasonal period the conditions for ONI Index of \u00a0+0.5\u00baC or higher\u00a0will be fulfilled.<\/h3>\n
Hypothetically if Nino 3-4 SST for March 2015 manages to stay reasonable positive, then the next 3 monthly seasonal period JFM should also fulfill the ONI of\u00a0+0.5\u00baC for declaring a full fledged El Nino.<\/h3>\n
One more interesting record would be that if indeed a full fledged El Nino develops within two months, this EL Nino would be the only EL nino to have been declared at the end of March from 1950 on wards.<\/h3>\n
Note: Most International agencies have now eased their forecast for chances for a full fledged El Nino currently.<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"