Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and the same is being researched for some concrete co-relations.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 : NOAA \u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa6\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0aa1\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 5 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0aa4\u0a83 \u0aa2\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aa8\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a98\u0aa3\u0abe \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a93 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0abe \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2019 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0ab5\u0aae\u0ac0 3-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 MJJ 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +0.5\u00baC \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9b\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 +0.54\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 +0.44\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0acb \u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 +0.39\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb JJA 2019 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0a9a\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a96\u0aa4\u0aae \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0acb Nino3.4 SST \u0a8d\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0ab2\u0ac0 +0.39\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7. \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac ‘\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb’ \u0a96\u0aa4\u0aae \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a9b\u0ac7. The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n Current El Nino 2018-19 all ONI Index are SON 2018 +0.7\u00baC, OND 2018 +0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2019 +0.8\u00baC, DJF 2019 +0.8\u00baC, JFM 2019 +0.8\u00baC, FMA 2019 +0.8\u00baC, MAM 2019 +0.8\u00baC, AMJ 2019 +0.6\u00baC and MJJ 2019 +0.5\u00baC. Last three Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are May +0.65\u00baC, June +0.54\u00baC and July is +0.44\u00baC.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd August 2019 was -8.7 and is considered in the El Nino zone.<\/p>\n Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -6.02 at the end of July 2019 and was -7.83 on 4th August 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -8.66<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association All eight surveyed international\u00a0climate models<\/a>\u00a0indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will remain at ENSO-neutral levels at least until the end of 2019.<\/p>\n (Note: winter\/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino 2018-19 Episode To Continue Into May 2019”<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“El Nino Expected To Be Declared End Of March 2019”<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for Update\u00a0“Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Enso Status on 5th August 2019 – Updated 6th August 2019 Huge Deficit Of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Recovers Although A Weak El Nino Exits With Latest MJJ ONI Index At +0.5\u00baC – Update 5th August 2019 Whole India huge Rainfall Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-19507","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19507"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19507\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nUsing NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping <\/strong>3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than or equal to <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC. El Nino has continued for many months, July 2019 being the ninth 3-monthly season with MJJ 2019 at <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC. The last two Nino3.4 SST anomaly for June<\/strong>\u00a0is <\/strong>+0.54\u00baC and July is <\/strong>+0.44\u00baC. If the Nino3.4 SST anomaly of August manages to go below 0.39<\/strong>\u00baC, the JJA ONI Index would be less<\/strong> than <\/strong>+0.5\u00baC, and thereby El Nino could transition into ENSO neutral conditions at the end of August 2019. However, if August <\/strong>Nino3.4 SST anomaly manages to remain at or above <\/strong>0.39<\/strong>\u00baC, a weak El Nino will continue. The chances of El Nino ending at end of August 2019 is high.<\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino 2018-19
\nExists End Of July 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2019.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21\r\n2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51\r\n2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60\r\n2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01\r\n2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04\r\n2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88\r\n2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68\r\n2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71\r\n2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41\r\n2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11\r\n2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13\r\n2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16\r\n2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04\r\n2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39\r\n2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86\r\n2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84\r\n2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76\r\n2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.82\r\n2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90\r\n2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72\r\n2019 5 28.50 27.85 0.65\r\n2019 6 28.19 27.65 0.54\r\n2019 7 27.70 27.26 0.44\r\n<\/pre>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/soi30_030819.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
SOI 30 Days & 90 Days graph up to 4th August 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/download_SOI_040819.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSOI Monthly graph up to July 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/SOI_July_2019.gif\")
<\/a><\/h4>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 29th April 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEl Ni\u00f1o is present.*
\n<\/strong>
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. A transition from El Ni\u00f1o to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.*<\/p>\n
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 6th August 2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO outlooks<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/20190806.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nEarlier updates are listed below:<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n