Southwest Monsoon Withdraws From Northwest Rajasthan

Current Weather Conditions on 7th September 2013 @ 11.00 am.

There has not been meaningful rainfall over Saurashtra during the last five to six days.

As per IMD the criteria for Withdrawal of SW Monsoon :

 a)           Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September.

b)           After 1st  September:

The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the western parts of NW India.

i)        Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.

ii)       Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below)

iii)      Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries and tephigrams.

On examining the above criteria, there has not been rainfall activity over Northwest Rajasthan for last seven days. The Anticyclone had not formed till today, however, the formation of Anticyclone at 850 Mb. level has started to form today.

COLA Map of 850 Mb. valid 8th September 00 UTC

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Also as seen from Water Vapor Satellite Image shows considerable reduction of Moisture content over Northwest Rajasthan.

IMD Water Vapor Satellite Image on 7th September 10.00 am.

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There is a Cyclonic Circulation over the West Central Bay of Bengal as can be seen from the COLA Map for 850 Mb. This needs to be watched for further development into a Low Pressure area.

Forecast: 7th to 12th September 2013

60% Saurashtra expected to receive 2 Cms. to 3 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period mainly around 10th/11th September.

40% Saurashtra expected to receive only Showers to some places getting up to 2 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 7th September 2013 @ 11.00 am.

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Low Pressure Over North Madhya Pradesh & Vicinity

Current Weather Conditions on 10th August 2013 @ 10.30 am.

There has been scattered light rainfall over some places of Saurashtra during the last few days and fairly widespread yesterday. Similarly scattered light to medium rainfall has occurred over most places of Gujarat yesterday and at a few places during the last few days. An interesting fact about rainfall over Rajkot as recorded by RingRoad Weather Station is that from 1st July 2013 to 10th August a period of 41 days, it has rained on 34 days !

Yesterday a Low Pressure area has formed over Northeast Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood and today it lies over Central parts of North Madhya Pradesh and
adjoining South Uttar Pradesh. Associated Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 3.1 kms above sea level.

An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation lies over Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Sindh, Kutch & vicinity.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar,
Center of the Low Pressure area, Daltonganj, Bankura, Diamond Harbour and
thence Southeastwards to East Central Bay of Bengal.
A Cyclonic Circulation between 2.1 & 5.8 kms above sea level lies over Central parts of
South Bay of Bengal.

 

IMD Chart at 700 Mb. showing UAC Over North M.P.

Another UAC Over NE Arabian Sea & Third UAC Over SC BOB

 

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Forecast: 10th August to 15th August

 

Gujarat: 10th August to 15th August

 

South Gujarat, Central Gujarat & North Gujarat will receive medium rainfall on a few days and scattered rainfall on rest of the forecast period. Some places of North Gujarat can get heavy rainfall next 24 to 48 hours.

 

Saurashtra: 10th August to 15th August

 

Bhavnagar District and areas of Saurashtra adjoining North Gujarat will receive light to medium rainfall during the forecast period. Rest of Saurashtra will receive light rain on some days and scattered showers on other days during the forecast period. Isolated places could get medium rainfall.

 

M.P., Rajasthan & Pakistan:

 

Madhya Pradesh & East Rajasthan will receive heavy rainfall next few days and subsequently rainfall is expected for areas of Pakistan adjoining Rajasthan & Punjab around 12th to 14th August.

Weather Forecast In Commodity World Dated 10th August 2013

 

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Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 10th August 2013

 

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Light Rainfall Reported Over Some Parts Of Saurashtra

Current Weather Conditions on 6th August 2013 @ 5.00 pm.

Last Forecast till 8th August is for Scattered Showers over Saurashtra. However, there was report of light rainfall over some parts of Junagadh District and Jamnagar District in the morning. Subsequently, rainfall started over Rajkot just before 4.00 pm. with a  very high intensity. Rate of rainfall as measured by RingRoad Weather Station was at 117.6 mm/hour but for just one to two minutes.

The Low Pressure that developed over the Northwest Bay of Bengal has tracked over Odisha and merged with the Axis Monsoon Low. The Associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation is now over Chhatishgarh. This System will not affect Saurashtra.

However, there is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Northeast Arabian Sea West of Saurashtra & South of Sindh at only one level of 700 Mb. Limited moisture incursion could take place over some parts of Saurashtra for both the days. The winds at 700 Mb. level are not monsoon speed yet Humidity over Saurashtra is very high.

IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Valid Up To 7th August 00 UTC

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IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Valid Up To 8th August 00 UTC

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Forecast: 6th to 10th August

Periods of sunshine & cloudy conditions with scattered shower or light rain for Saurashtra during the forecast period.

Depression Now Over Chhatishgarh & Adjoining Areas

Current Weather Conditions on 31th July 2013 @ 10.00 am.

Yesterday’s  Depression has tracked over North Odisha and this morning was over Chhatishgarh and adjoining areas.

TMD Map Showing the System area on 31st July 2013 @ 5.30 am. IST

 

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Wunderground Map showing Clouding Associated with the Depression

31-07-2013 @ 5.30 am. IST.

 

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From IMD: “Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places over south Chhattisgarh with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Telengana and Vidarbha during next 48 hrs with extremely heavy falls at one or two places. Rainfall at many places would occur over Odisha and north Chhattisgarh with heavy falls at one or two places during next 24 hrs and Rainfall at many places over Madhya Pradesh & rest Maharashtra with heavy falls at one or two places during next 48 hrs.”

 

Forecast: 31st July to 3rd August

System expected to track West Northwestwards over Chhhatishgarh, Vidarbha M.P. border areas and by tomorrow it is expected to reach Madhya Pradesh.

Saurashtra Gujarat & Kutch will receive light to medium rainfall and some isolated places could get heavy rainfall during the forecast period. Saurashtra & Kutch expected to receive rain around 2nd & 3rd August while Gujarat from 1st to 3rd August.
Rajasthan is also expected to befit from this System between 1st & 3rd August.

 Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 31st July 2013 @ 10.30 am.

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BOB System Concentrated Into A Depression Over NW Bay Of Bengal

Current Weather Conditions on 30th July 2013 @ 2.00 pm.

Yesterday’ Low Pressure over Northeast Bay of Bengal tracked Westwards and has strengthened to a Depression this morning over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of West Bengal & North Odisha centered at 21.0 N. & 88.5 E. about 75 Kms. East of North Odisha Coast. System is expected to track West Northwest and cross Odisha Coast by tonight.

Wunderground Map showing Clouding Associated with the Depression

30-07-2013 @ 11.30 IST.

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Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along
and off Odisha coast during next 48 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and
off Odisha coast during this period.

System initially expected to track West Northwestwards over Odisha, Chhhatishgarh
& Vidarbha and M.P. border areas.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places over Odisha,
Chattisgarh and Vidharba with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places during next 48 hours .
Extremely heavy falls would also occur at isolated places over Odisha during next 24 hrs.

Updates of its effect on Saurashtra, Gujarat & Rajasthan will be given tomorrow.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily dated 30th July 2013

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