Full fledged EL Nino was confirmed at the end of March 2015 when the five consecutive 3 monthly seasons had ONI index of +0.5 C or higher. February, March & April 2015 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the ONI Index for FMA as +0.6 .
As per NOAA Officially El Nino is declared as per conditions laid down and shown in ONI Index graph below:
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
The respective ONI Index are SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC, NDJ 2015=0.7ºC, DJF 2015=0.6ºC, JFM 2015=0.5ºC & FMA 2015=0.6ºC.
CPC had issued an El Nino Advisory on 5th March 2015 in anticipation that JFM 2015 ONI would be 0.5ºC or more.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had moved to negative zone from neutral zone during March 2015. However, the latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending 26 April is −3.6 which denotes neutral zone.
SOI Monthly graph till end of April 2015 – The Long Paddock – Queensland Government. The Latest April 2015 30 days SOI was -3.1 .
This is the only El Nino to have been declared as full fledged El nino at the end of March of any year from 1950 on wards.
00votes
Article Rating
25 Add your comment here
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
abizer kachwala
06/05/2015 8:16 am
Ashok sir, can you tell the onset dates of monsoon in gujarat .will it rain in kheda district particularly in Kapadvanj vetween 10-15 may.please get me aware about it.Thanks in advance
Onset of Monsoon for Mainland India is around 31st May/1st June. We should wait 10 to 20 days after onset in Kerala.
However, we can get pres-monsoon rain before that time. I only forecast for one week, so cannot help you on that.
Jaypalsinh Dhrafa
06/05/2015 8:14 am
Good morning sir
Hu tamari darek post vanchu 6u ane share pan karu 6u tamari aagahi sachot j hoy 6e.
Sareras aa varse chomasu kevu rahese ane Alnino ni asar kevi rahese te janavso
Chomasa maate ghana paribado kaam kare chhe te paike El Nino ek chhe. Haal El Nino chalu chhe pan haju nabado chhe. Chomasu maate Arabi Samudra ane Bangadni Khadi na taapmaan oopar vadhu nirbharta hoi chhe.
Ghani vakhat EL Nino hova Chhata aapade chomasu saru gayel chhe.
Aaakha chomasani aagahi hu karto nathi. pan tamone badha factor aange janavu chhu.
chetan
05/05/2015 6:53 pm
south Rajsthan pase uac che t gujrat ma vatavaran par asar karse sir?
Haal El Nino nabado chhe etlu toonk ma tamone janavu chhu ane EL Nino sivay ghana paribado Chomasama lagu pade.
jigar saraswat
05/05/2015 4:28 pm
hello sir,
aaje varsad jevu thai gayu che gajvanu chaluthai gayu che.. kaichange vatavaran ma kale pan amuk jagya a varsad jem hatu ne amuk jagya a padyo pan hato… aaje surendranagar ma gaaje che e varsad jevu che… su che sir navu update??
thank you
General samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir chhe. paribad anookool thay etle chhata chhuti thaay.
sanjay marsonia
05/05/2015 4:21 pm
Sir khubaj Sara samachar tamo Ae apya
Jadeja gauravsinh
05/05/2015 4:11 pm
Sir today sandesh newspaper ma aaje early monsoon na news che may be by jayant sinha from imd sir mane khabar che tame lamba samay ni aagahi karta nathi chata possible hoy to answer aapjo
Chomasu velu bese chhe ke nahi ee IMD kahe te sachu ganvu.
Pan ek vaat kahu ke avata be athvadiiya maate dakshin bharat ma chomasa jevo varsad thashe.
Bhupendra Tejani
05/05/2015 3:47 pm
SIr, There is new forecast from Skymate today. Like March and April, May is also expected to record excess rainfall with pre-monsoon activity reaching its peak. It is expected to make a comeback on account fresh Western Disturbances, cyclonic circulations and wind discontinuity across the country. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather models are indicating that the country will be once again observing a rainy month, with fairly good chances of recording surplus rainfall. You have also mention in your forecast that there is unstable with at upper level. Is it the sign of WEAK El Nino… Read more »
Yes May will also be excess rain for the Country as a whole. However, Gujarat will get not get that much rain compared to other States (South India) atleast in the next two weeks.
El Nino is not the only criteria for bad monsoon. El Nino is yet weak and so nothing to worry about at present.
ketan patel
05/05/2015 2:52 pm
Sir 4 tarikhe junagadh ma varsadi mahol hato tenu karn soo hoi sak.
General samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir chhe etle vadado thaay etle chhata chhuti ni shakyata vadhu raheshe.
Bharat Changela
05/05/2015 1:57 pm
Sir,
Pls advise what would be the effect of El Nino on coming monsoon and current heatwave?
zala ramsih
05/05/2015 1:45 pm
sir ajna sanesh news pepar par gujrat sthit havaman dayrektar sanjay sarkar ve aagahi aapeli seke aavarse desma somasu 15 may na bese jase .. saky kharu? ane 15 may somasu desma bese to hal somasu andoman nikobar tapu par hovu joye ? sir hu janu su ke tame 5 thi 7 divasni sasot aagahi aaposo pan sata thodo anubhav janav jo please please sir
Ashok sir, can you tell the onset dates of monsoon in gujarat .will it rain in kheda district particularly in Kapadvanj vetween 10-15 may.please get me aware about it.Thanks in advance
Onset of Monsoon for Mainland India is around 31st May/1st June. We should wait 10 to 20 days after onset in Kerala.
However, we can get pres-monsoon rain before that time. I only forecast for one week, so cannot help you on that.
Good morning sir
Hu tamari darek post vanchu 6u ane share pan karu 6u tamari aagahi sachot j hoy 6e.
Sareras aa varse chomasu kevu rahese ane Alnino ni asar kevi rahese te janavso
Chomasa maate ghana paribado kaam kare chhe te paike El Nino ek chhe. Haal El Nino chalu chhe pan haju nabado chhe. Chomasu maate Arabi Samudra ane Bangadni Khadi na taapmaan oopar vadhu nirbharta hoi chhe.
Ghani vakhat EL Nino hova Chhata aapade chomasu saru gayel chhe.
Aaakha chomasani aagahi hu karto nathi. pan tamone badha factor aange janavu chhu.
south Rajsthan pase uac che t gujrat ma vatavaran par asar karse sir?
Samanya ritey vadado thaay etle varsad pade tevu na hoi pan samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir hoi vadada thaay etle chhata chhuti ni shakyata haal vadhi chhe.
Sir
1.We would like to know whether SOI will be in neutral zone in next two three month.?
2. El nino was in strong position in 2009?
2009 EL Nino was moderate.
SOI for currently is -4.0. It is neutral position. I don’t know what it would be for next two three months.
Kai khabar nathi padti english
Haal El Nino nabado chhe etlu toonk ma tamone janavu chhu ane EL Nino sivay ghana paribado Chomasama lagu pade.
hello sir,
aaje varsad jevu thai gayu che gajvanu chaluthai gayu che.. kaichange vatavaran ma kale pan amuk jagya a varsad jem hatu ne amuk jagya a padyo pan hato… aaje surendranagar ma gaaje che e varsad jevu che… su che sir navu update??
thank you
General samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir chhe. paribad anookool thay etle chhata chhuti thaay.
Sir khubaj Sara samachar tamo Ae apya
Sir today sandesh newspaper ma aaje early monsoon na news che may be by jayant sinha from imd sir mane khabar che tame lamba samay ni aagahi karta nathi chata possible hoy to answer aapjo
Chomasu velu bese chhe ke nahi ee IMD kahe te sachu ganvu.
Pan ek vaat kahu ke avata be athvadiiya maate dakshin bharat ma chomasa jevo varsad thashe.
SIr, There is new forecast from Skymate today. Like March and April, May is also expected to record excess rainfall with pre-monsoon activity reaching its peak. It is expected to make a comeback on account fresh Western Disturbances, cyclonic circulations and wind discontinuity across the country. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather models are indicating that the country will be once again observing a rainy month, with fairly good chances of recording surplus rainfall. You have also mention in your forecast that there is unstable with at upper level. Is it the sign of WEAK El Nino… Read more »
Yes May will also be excess rain for the Country as a whole. However, Gujarat will get not get that much rain compared to other States (South India) atleast in the next two weeks.
El Nino is not the only criteria for bad monsoon. El Nino is yet weak and so nothing to worry about at present.
Sir 4 tarikhe junagadh ma varsadi mahol hato tenu karn soo hoi sak.
General samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir chhe. paribad anookool thay etle chhata chhuti thaay.
mahiti magu chhu
General samagra Gujarat na upla level nu vatavaran asthir chhe etle vadado thaay etle chhata chhuti ni shakyata vadhu raheshe.
Sir,
Pls advise what would be the effect of El Nino on coming monsoon and current heatwave?
sir ajna sanesh news pepar par gujrat sthit havaman dayrektar sanjay sarkar ve aagahi aapeli seke aavarse desma somasu 15 may na bese jase .. saky kharu? ane 15 may somasu desma bese to hal somasu andoman nikobar tapu par hovu joye ? sir hu janu su ke tame 5 thi 7 divasni sasot aagahi aaposo pan sata thodo anubhav janav jo please please sir
10,11 tarikhe gujarat ma varsad ni aagahi chhe.
tevu Tamo kaho chho ke puchho chho ?