Current Weather Conditions on 11th May 2013 @ 9.30 am.
The Depression in the Bay of Bengal strengthened to a Deep Depression yesterday as per IMD.
As per JTWC has this System today 11th May 2013 at 0000 UTC ( 5.30 am. IST) at 40 knots. ( 75 Kms/hour on a one minute average wind speed basis) located at 7 N. and 91.0 E. with Central Pressure of 993 Mb.
Google earth Graphic Overlay of JTWC Forecast Track and Track History of 01B.ONE
NRL Satellite Image on 11th May 0400 UTC ( 9.30 am. IST.)
WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.1N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.5N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.6N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.2N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.6N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.1N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7N 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 90.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM SOUTHWARD
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM SPOT OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO
GROW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE DEVELOPING WARM SPOT NOTICED IN IR AND A TIGHTLY CURVED NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 110011Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE 101810Z OSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED MULTIPLE 40-KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME
BEING BUT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B
IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
NORTHERN INDIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR/BANGLADESH BORDER AS
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF
BENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE
ENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE
THE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
BEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL AS A
SIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGUN TO SPIN-DOWN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE
TO CONVERGE ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ONLY CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF TRACKER. HOWEVER, IT IS NOW INLINE WITH
THE RE-CURVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH AND MAY COME FURTHER INLINE WITH
TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
JTWC Forecast Track For 01B.ONE
As per RSMC/IMD vide their Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/04 Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 11-05-2013 the Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved Northwest and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 11th May 2013 near latitude 06.50 N. and longitude 91.00 E. about 360 km Southwest of Car Nicobar, 1100 km East-Southeast of Trincomalee, 1400 km Southeast of Chennai and 1750 km South of Chittagong. The system would intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. It would move initially Northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter Northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
RSMC/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency monitoring Cyclonic Weather Systems and since they expect the current Deep Depression to intensify further, it can be construed that Cyclonic Storm when developed would be named “MAHASEN” the name contributed by Sri Lanka. The last Cyclone was “NILAM”.
The names of Cyclonic Storms are contributed by eight nations associated with the North Indian Ocean are tabulated hereunder:
| Contributing Nations |
List 1 | List 2 | List 3 | List 4 | List 5 | List 6 | List 7 | List 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | Onil | Ogni | Nisha | Giri | Helen | Chapala | Ockhi | Fani |
| India | Agni | Akash | Bijli | Jal | Lehar | Megh | Sagar | Vayu |
| Maldives | Hibaru | Gonu | Aila | Keila | Madi | Roanu | Makunu | Hikaa |
| Myanmar | Pyarr | Yemyin | Phyan | Thane | Na−nauk | Kyant | Daye | Kyarr |
| Oman | Baaz | Sidr | Ward | Murjan | Hudhud | Nada | Luban | Maha |
| Pakistan | Fanoos | Nargis | Laila | Nilam | Nilofar | Vardah | Titli | Bulbul |
| Sri Lanka | Mala | Rashmi | Bandu | Mahasen | Priya | Asiri | Gigum | Soba |
| Thailand | Mukda | Khai−Muk | Phet | Phailin | Komen | Mora | Phethai | Amphan |