Deep Depression Over Bay Of Bengal To Strengthen To Cyclonic Storm “MAHASEN”

Current Weather Conditions on 11th May 2013 @ 9.30 am.

 
The Depression in the Bay of Bengal strengthened to a Deep Depression yesterday as per IMD.
 
As per JTWC has this System today 11th May 2013 at 0000 UTC ( 5.30 am. IST) at 40 knots. ( 75 Kms/hour on a one minute average wind speed basis) located at 7 N. and 91.0 E. with Central Pressure of 993 Mb.
 

Google earth Graphic Overlay of JTWC Forecast Track and Track History of 01B.ONE

 

01B.ONE_JTWC_Google_110513

 

NRL Satellite Image on 11th May 0400 UTC ( 9.30 am. IST.)

 

20130511.0400.meteo7.x.ir1km.01BONE.40kts-993mb-70N-910E.100pc

 

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 91.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 91.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 8.1N 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 9.5N 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 10.6N 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 12.2N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 15.6N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 19.1N 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 22.7N 92.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 90.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM SOUTHWARD 
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM SPOT OVER 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO 
GROW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON 
THE DEVELOPING WARM SPOT NOTICED IN IR AND A TIGHTLY CURVED NOTCH 
FEATURE IN THE 110011Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 
30-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE 101810Z OSCAT PASS THAT 
SHOWED MULTIPLE 40-KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO 
INDICATE THAT THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME 
BEING BUT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC. VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE 
ROBUST OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B 
IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN 
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER  
NORTHERN INDIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 48, 
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR/BANGLADESH BORDER AS 
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF 
BENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE 
ENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED 
TO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE 
THE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL 
BEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 
85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE 
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL AS A 
SIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGUN TO SPIN-DOWN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE 
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE 
TO CONVERGE ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ONLY CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE SLOW 
TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF TRACKER. HOWEVER, IT IS NOW INLINE WITH 
THE RE-CURVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH AND MAY COME FURTHER INLINE WITH 
TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

 

JTWC Forecast Track For 01B.ONE

 

io0113_110513_04

 
 

As per RSMC/IMD vide their Bulletin No.: BOB 01/2013/04 Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 11-05-2013 the Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved Northwest and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 11th May 2013 near latitude 06.50 N. and longitude 91.00 E. about 360 km Southwest of Car Nicobar, 1100 km East-Southeast of Trincomalee, 1400 km Southeast of Chennai and 1750 km South of Chittagong. The system would intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. It would move initially Northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter Northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

 

RSMC/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency monitoring Cyclonic Weather Systems and since they expect the current Deep Depression to intensify further, it can be construed that Cyclonic Storm when developed would be named “MAHASEN” the name contributed by Sri Lanka. The last Cyclone was “NILAM”.

 

The names of Cyclonic Storms are contributed by eight nations associated with the North Indian Ocean are tabulated hereunder:

Contributing
Nations
List 1 List 2 List 3 List 4 List 5 List 6 List 7 List 8
Bangladesh Onil Ogni Nisha Giri Helen Chapala Ockhi Fani
India Agni Akash Bijli Jal Lehar Megh Sagar Vayu
Maldives Hibaru Gonu Aila Keila Madi Roanu Makunu Hikaa
Myanmar Pyarr Yemyin Phyan Thane Na−nauk Kyant Daye Kyarr
Oman Baaz Sidr Ward Murjan Hudhud Nada Luban Maha
Pakistan Fanoos Nargis Laila Nilam Nilofar Vardah Titli Bulbul
Sri Lanka Mala Rashmi Bandu Mahasen Priya Asiri Gigum Soba
Thailand Mukda Khai−Muk Phet Phailin Komen Mora Phethai Amphan

Note: Please Refer/Rely on the Official RSMC/IMD New Delhi Advisories/Warnings/Bulletins/Reports regarding this Weather System.

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