Current Weather Conditions on 10th May 2013 @ 9.30 am.
The Well Marked Low Pressure had developed in the Bay of Bengal on 8th May which weakened on 9th became Less Marked. However, during the last 12 hours the System has organized once again by two notches to a Depression strength. As per NRL this morning at 0000 UTC (5.30 am. IST.) this System was located at 5.4 N & 93.2 E with wind speed of 30 knots ( on 1 minute average basis) having Central Pressure of 1000 Mb. The Clouding associated with this System are spread over a very large area of 900 to 1100 Kms. The System has tracked net 750 Kms. East of the original location of 8th May. Current location of this System is 1300 East of Sri Lanka and about 700 Kms. South of Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Island.
Google Map Showing Track History of 92B.INVEST
NRL Satellite Image on 10th May 0400 UTC ( 9.30 am. IST.)
Wunderground Map Showing Clouding of the Bay Of Bengal System
( White/Pink is very high cold clouds then Orange-Red, Yellow then Blue which denotes lower warmer clouds)
JTWC has issued a TCFA:
WTIO21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
JTWC TCFA Graphic: