El Nino 2018-19 Episode To Continue Into May 2019

Enso Status on 5th May 2019

 

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :


Using NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping
3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. El Nino has continued during April 2019 with the sixth 3-monthly season of FMA 2019 at +0.8ºC. The last two Nino3.4 SST anomaly for March is +0.90ºC and April is +0.72ºC. Even if the Nino3.4 SST anomaly of May is around 0.0ºC, the MAM ONI Index would be greater than or equal to +0.5ºC, and so El Nino is expected to continue during May 2019.

Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India.

 

અશોક પટેલ નું તારણ અને વિશ્લેષણ :

NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ માર્ચ આખર માં વિધિવત ‘એલ નિનો’ ડિક્લેર થયેલ કારણ કે સળંગ 5 અંશતઃ ઢાંકેલ ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ +0.5ºC અથવા વધુ રહેલ છે. એપ્રિલ 2019 માં પણ ‘એલ નિનો’ ચાલુ રહે છે અને મે 2019 માં પણ ચાલુ રહેશે. FMA 2019 નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ +0.8°C હતું.છેલ્લા બે મહિના નું Nino3.4 SST ઍનોમલી માર્ચ +0.90ºC અને એપ્રિલ +0.72ºC છે. મે 2019 નું SST +0.0ºC આસ પાસ રહે તો પણ MAM 2019 નું ONI +0.5ºC થી વધુ કે બરોબર રહેશે એટલે ‘એલ નિનો’ મે 2019 માં પણ ચાલુ રહેશે.

આગળ ના 100 વર્ષ થી વધુ ની શરેરાશ પ્રમાણે એલ નિનો વર્ષ માં ભારતીય ચોમાસુ 94% રહેલ છે, જયારે લા નિના વર્ષ માં ચોમાસુ 106% રહેલ છે. ભારતીય ચોમાસા માટે વિવિદ્ધ પરિબળો પૈકી નું એલ નિનો/લા નિના ફક્ત એક પરિબળ છે. ભારત ના અલગ અલગ વિસ્તારો ના ચોમાસા પર એલ નિનો/લા નિના ની અસર એક સરખી નથી થતી.

How ONI is determined:

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA

Current El Nino 2018-19 all ONI Index are SON 2018 +0.7ºC, OND 2018 +0.9ºC, NDJ 2019 +0.8ºC, DJF 2019 +0.8ºC, JFM 2019 +0.8ºC and FMA 2019 +0.8ºC. Last three Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are February +0.83ºC, March +0.90ºC and April is +0.72ºC.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino 2018-19 Continues In April 2019

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2017   5   28.30   27.85    0.45
2017   6   28.06   27.65    0.41
2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28
2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21
2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51
2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60
2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01
2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.04
2018   1   25.58   26.45   -0.88
2018   2   25.98   26.66   -0.68
2018   3   26.50   27.21   -0.71
2018   4   27.32   27.73   -0.41
2018   5   27.74   27.85   -0.11
2018   6   27.76   27.65    0.13
2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16
2018   8   26.94   26.91    0.04
2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.11   27.21    0.90
2019   4   28.46   27.73    0.72

 

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd May 2019 was -2.5 and is considered in the neutral zone.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

 

Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

30 Days average SOI was -2.43 at the end of April 2019 and was -2.97 on 5th May 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.38

 

SOI Monthly graph up to April 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 29th April 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño is present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Niño. A weak El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance).

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

As per BOM – Australia 30th April 2019

ENSO outlooks

 

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “El Nino Expected To Be Declared End Of March 2019”

Click here for Update “Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”

Click here for Update “Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”

Click here for Update “Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”

 

67 Replies to “El Nino 2018-19 Episode To Continue Into May 2019”

  1. Sir tv vala varsad ni agahi krese 10 thi 12 tarikh ma tme chu kaho cho avse varsad

  2. Sir elninona karne sareras karta ochho varasad thay tem unalama elninoni Ni koi asar thay Ane te atyare anubhavay chhe?

    1. Hall je El Nino chalu chhe teno payo nakhano 6 mahina pahela. aa kai rato raat nthi avyo.

      Bijuke EL Nino ne tena kad karta vadhu moto Media ne hisabe thai gayo chhe !

      Paramparik aagahi ma pan havey toe EL Nino na pavano ni vaat thava maandi chhe !

      Central Prashant mahasagar ma Dariya ni sapati nu taap maan normal thi 0.8 C unchu chhe.

      Arabian Sea ma pan alag alag vistar ma aam taapmaan vadh ghat hoy chhe je samanya babat chhe.

  3. Cola mathi colour gayab thai gayo… have chances nathi lagta ke kase pan Gujarat ma unseasonal rain pade avta diwaso ma

  4. પ્રી મોન્સૂન એક્ટિવિટી ક્યાં ચાલુ થૈ?

    1. Andaman baju and South ma.

      Pre-monsoon nu spast vargikaran nathi. Badha pot potani ritey nirnay leta hoy chhe ke aa pre-monsoon ganay. Kyarek khas bhed pan na raheto hoy.

  5. Ek question haji pan hato k sw monsoon only India ma j hoy chhe ke Asia sivay bija koi country ma pan hoy chhe? And sir cold countries ma varsad kevi rite padto hoy chhe? USA and UK Aapna karta cold country che to pan tya Aapna thi vadhu varsad ne cyclone aavta hoy chhe e Kem?

    1. U.S. ma pan Monsoon hoy chhe. Samagra U.S. ma nahi.

      Baaki darek Country ne varsad maate na alag paribado hoy chhe.

      Visuvrut vara desho ma bapor pachhi Thunderstorm lagbhag kayam jevu hoy.

      Tunk ma badha desh ne alag alag ritey varsad na paribad hoy chhe.

  6. Sir aaj na Gujarat samasar ma porbadar ma aavta 4/5 divso ma varsad nu ke se to thodi jankari aapva vinti

  7. Iod કેટલું પોટીવય તો સારું નેં કેટલા પોઈન્ટ વયતો નેગેટિવ. ,??? (edited for clarity…Moderator)

  8. Cape index High hoy to evu chokas che ke thunderstorms thai j?? 14 thi 16 high che windy ma and Cape index joti vakhte time su rakhvo (jem ke temperature check Karti vakhte divas ma 3 pm jova na hoi che..)

    1. ITCZ ma Vadad samuho dekhay and jyan North and SOuth Godardh na pavano madta hoy chhe.

      Aapada chomasa ma te ITCZ Equator thi 5N ane pachhi 10N and 15N evi ritey agad chaley… chomasu agad chale te ritey.

  9. સર દક્ષીણ પસીમ નું ચોમાસુ સ્ટાર્ટ કઈ જગ્યા થી થાય અને નોર્મલ કઈ તારીખ થી થાય

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