Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails July 2018 – ONI Index is Just +0.1C For MJJ 2018 – East Pacific Is Colder Than Normal

Enso Status on 11th August 2018

Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails July 2018

How ONI is determined:

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.

The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Last five ONI Index are JFM 2018 -0.8ºC, FMA 2018 -0.6ºC, MAM 2018 -0.4ºC, AMJ 2018 -0.1ºC and MJJ 2018 +0.1ºC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is +0.17ºC and the calculated ONI MJJ 2018 is +0.1ºC, though positive but in neutral zone. Hence ENSO neutral conditions continues to exist.

La Nina event 2017-18 had officially ended at the end of April 2018 (FMA 2018). ENSO neutral conditions exists since then.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows ENSO Neutral Conditions Continues MJJ 2018 Season

 

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2016   7   26.82   27.26   -0.44
2016   8   26.28   26.91   -0.63
2016   9   26.15   26.80   -0.65
2016  10   25.98   26.75   -0.78
2016  11   25.95   26.75   -0.80
2016  12   26.10   26.65   -0.55
2017   1   26.12   26.45   -0.33
2017   2   26.68   26.66    0.02
2017   3   27.33   27.21    0.12
2017   4   28.04   27.73    0.30
2017   5   28.30   27.85    0.45
2017   6   28.06   27.65    0.41
2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28
2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21
2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51
2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60
2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01
2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.04
2018   1   25.58   26.45   -0.88
2018   2   25.98   26.66   -0.68
2018   3   26.50   27.21   -0.71
2018   4   27.32   27.73   -0.41
2018   5   27.74   27.85   -0.11
2018   6   27.76   27.65    0.13
2018   7   27.43   27.26    0.17

 

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 29 July was +2.2, and the 90-day SOI was −0.4. The SOI is +1.9 on 2nd August 2018 and has been within the neutral range since late April.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

 

Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

30 Days average SOI was +1.79 at the end of July 2018 and was +1.18 on 1st August 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -0.68.

 

SOI Monthly graph up to July 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

 

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 6th August 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

As per BOM – Australia 31st July 2018

ENSO outlooks

 

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”

Click here for Update “Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”

Click here for Update “La Nina Event 2017-18 Expected To Commence At The End Of March”

 

240 Replies to “Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails July 2018 – ONI Index is Just +0.1C For MJJ 2018 – East Pacific Is Colder Than Normal”

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