Southwest Monsoon Has Withdrawn From Entire Country – Northeast Monsoon Expected to Commence 26th/27th October 2017

Current Weather Conditions On 25th October 2017

Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from all parts of Peninsular India, Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea, thereby withdrawing from the entire country today the 25th October 2017. Since Northeasterly/Easterly winds have stared over South India, conditions are favorable for commencement of Northeast Monsoon over the Southern regions of Peninsular India by 26th/27th October 2017.

There is a Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Southeast Tamil Nadu & neighborhood  and another UAC over Southeast Arabian Sea extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.

Due to the presence of an Anti-Cyclonic Circulation in lower levels over Northwest Bay of Bengal, moisture incursion is taking place over Eastern India.

Forecast: South India

26th October to 1st November 2017

Kerala & Tamilnadu expected to receive 8 cm to 15 cm rain during the forecast period with isolated centers getting more than 15 cm. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka expected to receive smaller quantum of rain during the forecast period.

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch

Update for 26th October to 1st November 2017

The Maximum Temperature is expected to be around 35 to 36 C in hot centers and could be near normal or slightly above normal during the forecast period. Variable winds till 29th/30th October and Northerly winds thereafter. Morning moisture will decrease from 27th October and so the fog possibility will decrease from 27th October.

આગાહી: સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત

અપડેટ 25 ઓક્ટોબર થી 1 નવેમ્બર 2017

મહત્તમ તાપમાન 35 C થી 36 C આસપાસ રહેશે જે નોર્મલ અથવા નોર્મલ થી એકાદ C વધુ. પવન નો 29/30 તારીખ સુધી ફર્યા રાખશે અને ત્યાર પછી ઉત્તરાદા થશે. સવારે ભેજ 27 તારીખ થી ઘટશે એટલે ઝાકર ની શક્યતા ઘટી જશે.

 

Caution:
Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:
સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.

 

 

 

 

 

 

વાંચવા માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો – Click Image to read details.

Depression Over Westcentral Bay Of Bengal On 19th October 2017 – System Heading Northerly Direction Towards Odisha

Current Weather Conditions on 19th October 2017

Update 9.00 pm. IST

IMD document is 2 pages. Use Pg Up & Pg Down arrow at bottom left corner.

IMD નું ડોક્યુમેન્ટ 2 પાના નું છે જે ડાબી બાજુ નીચલા ખૂણે થી પેજ અપ ને પેજ ડાઉન થાય છે

IMD Bulletin No. 4 (BOB 05/2017) Time of issue: 2030 hours IST Dated: 19.10.2017

 

 

The Well Marked Low Pressure over the Bay of Bengal had Concentrated into a Depression early morning over West Central Bay Of Bengal and was located at Lat. 17.1 N & Long. 86.8 E mainly South of Odisha Coast at 11.30 am IST today 19th October 2017. The Current track is mainly Northerly till reaching Odisha coast. System is expected to track Northeasterly track after landfall early tomorrow.

IMD document is 2 pages. Use Pg Up & Pg Down arrow at bottom left corner.

IMD નું ડોક્યુમેન્ટ 2 પાના નું છે જે ડાબી બાજુ નીચલા ખૂણે થી પેજ અપ ને પેજ ડાઉન થાય છે

IMD Bulletin No. 3 (BOB 05/2017) Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 19.10.2017

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch: 19th to 25th October 2017

Depression System not expected to affect Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat. The Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from whole Gujarat and the weather is expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The Maximum Temperature is above normal by 2 to 3 C at most places and the Minimum Temperature is also above normal at most places. The Maximum & Minimum will decrease from 21st and will be near normal till 24th October.

બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં લો પ્રેસર હતું તે WMLP થયું અને આજે ડિપ્રેસન માં પરિવર્તિત થયું જે પશ્ચિમ મધ્ય બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં છે. મુખ્યત્વે ઉત્તરી બાજુ જાય છે ઓડિશા તરફ. જે આવતી કાલે વહેલી સવારે ઓડિશા પહોંચશે. ત્યાર બાદ થોડું ઉત્તર પૂર્વ બાજુ જાય તેવું અનુમાન છે.

આગાહી: સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત

અપડેટ 19 થી 25 ઓક્ટોબર 2017

આ ડિપ્રેસન સિસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ને અસર કરે તેવી સંભાવના નથી. દક્ષિણ પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસુ સમગ્ર ગુજરાત માં થી વિદાય લીધી છે અને આગાહી સમય માં વાતાવરણ સૂકું રહેશે. તાપમાન નોર્મલ થી 2 થી 3 સી ઊંચું રહે છે જે 21 તારીખ થી ફરક પડશે અને 22 થી 24 દરમ્યાન નોર્મલ આસપાસ રહેશે.

NRL IR Satellite Image of on 19th October 2017 @ 0900 UTC (14.30 IST)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:

સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.

 

 

 

ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2ºC – La Nina Possible Earliest February 2018 Using NOAA Criteria

ENSO Status on 15th October 2017

 

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures were based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4) and have now been updated to further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.

The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.

Last five ONI Index are MAM 2017 +0.3ºC, AMJ 2017 +0.4ºC, MJJ 2017 +0.4ºC, JJA 2017 +0.1ºC and JAS 2017 -0.2ºC  (CPC/NOAA has it at -0.1°C ) hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.

 

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending September 2017

 

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2015  10   29.07   26.75    2.32
2015  11   29.41   26.75    2.67
2015  12   29.26   26.65    2.60
2016   1   29.11   26.45    2.66
2016   2   29.00   26.66    2.34
2016   3   28.90   27.21    1.70
2016   4   28.73   27.73    0.99
2016   5   28.24   27.85    0.39
2016   6   27.70   27.65    0.05
2016   7   26.82   27.26   -0.44
2016   8   26.28   26.91   -0.63
2016   9   26.15   26.80   -0.65
2016  10   25.98   26.75   -0.78
2016  11   25.95   26.75   -0.80
2016  12   26.10   26.65   -0.55
2017   1   26.12   26.45   -0.33
2017   2   26.67   26.66    0.01
2017   3   27.31   27.21    0.11
2017   4   28.03   27.73    0.29
2017   5   28.29   27.85    0.44
2017   6   28.05   27.65    0.39
2017   7   27.53   27.26    0.27
2017   8   26.69   26.91   -0.22
2017   9   26.30   26.80   -0.50

 

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 8th October is +9.1 (90-day value +6.6), having passed into the La Niña value range within the last week.

The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 14th October 2017 is +8.5 which is in the La Nina zone.

 

 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

SOI Monthly graph up to September 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

 

30 Days average SOI was +6.16 at the end of September 2017 and +9.79 on 14th October 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 9th October 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

There is an increasing chance(~55%-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking  here


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC 
DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

12 October 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and
winter 2017-18.

As per BOM -Australia 10th October 2017

Weaker trade winds stall cooling in tropical Pacific – ENSO Outlook Inactive:

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”

Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”

Click here for Update “2016/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”

Click here for Update “Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

 

Mainly Dry Weather Over Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat 15th To 21st October – A Low Pressure Expected To Develop Over Bay Of Bengal Around 16th October

Weather Conditions on 14th October 2017

The Monsoon withdrawal line passes through Lat. 28.5°N/Long. 81.0°E, Kheri, Nowgong, Shjapur, Ahmedabad, Dwarka,  Lat. 22.0°N/Long. 65.0°E and Lat. 22.0°N/Long. 60.0°E.

Southwest Monsoon is expected to withdraw from more parts of Saurashtra,Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh & neighboring areas during the next 2 to 3 days.

There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Southwest & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal extending up to 4.5 km. above mean sea level.

There is also an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over East Central Arabian Sea between 1.5  to 3.1 km above mean sea level.

 

 

A Low Pressure area is expected to develop over East Central Bay of Bengal around 16th October 2017. This System is expected to concentrate into a Depression or a stronger strength during the subsequent days as it tracks towards Odisha Coast & vicinity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch

Scattered rain over Coastal regions of Saurashtra have mainly ended with area and quantum decreasing today. Some pockets of South Gujarat will get Scattered rain today the 14th October 2017.

Update for 15th October to 21st October 2017

Mainly dry conditions to prevail during the forecast period. The Maximum Temperature is expected to be around 36/38 C over hot centers of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.

Note: Farmers are dependent on Nature. Optimum time of harvesting and other agricultural activity is a critical decision farmer has to make by himself.

આગાહી: સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત

આજે 14th ઓક્ટોબર 2017 ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર માં વરસાદી વિસ્તાર અને માત્રા માં ઘટાડો જોવા મળશે અને વાતાવરણ સુધરશે.
દક્ષિણ ગુજરાત બાજુ આજ નો દિવસ છુટા છવાયા વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે.

અપડેટ 15 થી 21 ઓક્ટોબર 2017

આગાહી સમય માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં વાતાવરણ મુખ્યત્વે સૂકું રહેશે. પવન હજુ ફૂલ ભૂર નહિ થાય. ફેર ફાર થયા રાખશે જેમાં ઉત્તર પશ્ચિમ બાજુ થી પણ ફૂંકાશે. મહત્તમ તાપમાન હાલ નોર્મલ 35 થી 36 આસપાસ હોવું જોઈએ જે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ના ગરમ સેન્ટરો માં 36/38 C. રહેશે. આગાહી સમય માં બંગાળ ની ખાડી વાળી સિસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર , ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ને અસર કરે એવી શક્યતા ઓછી છે.

 

નોંધ: ખેડૂતે કુદરત ઉપર નિર્ભર રહેવાનું છે. ખેતી કામ ના નિર્ણય તમારે લેવાના છે. ખેતી માં મોડા ઊઠયે લાભ કે વહેલા ઊઠયે લાભ ઈ કઈ નક્કી ના હોય.

 

 

Caution:
Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:
સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.

 

 

 

 

 

 

વાંચવા માટે ઇમેજ ક્લિક કરો – Click Image to read details.