http://www.gujaratweather.com/forecast/index.php http://www.gujaratweather.com/forecast/index.php?entry=entry100908-063017
Yesterday's lingering Low Pressure area over Orissa has tracked West Northwestwards and is currenly located over Vidarbha and adjoining Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh border area with associated Cyclonic Circulation extending upto Midtropospheric level.

There is an Off-shore trough from Saurashtra as well as South Gujarat coast to Konkan & Karnataka coast.

Map from Thai Met Dept.


The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Bikaner, Kota, Bhopal, Centre of Low pressure area, Gopalpur and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

Weather over Saurashtra has been partly cloudy and partly with sunshine yesterday while today it is mostly cloudy.

Monsoon is very active over India as can be seen from the graph below:



Forecast:
The Low Pressure is expected to track Northwestwards and by 9th & 10th September it would be over Gujarat and vicinity with Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation upto 3 Kms. above ground.

Central Gujarat, South Gujarat, and adjoining North Gujarat and Saurashtra will get heavy rains from today till 11th September.

Note:
The background of all maps shown on this forecast does not depict Political boundary.

Forecast in Akila Daily dated 8th September 2010 @ 2.30 pm.

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The Low Pressure area that developed on 3rd September 2010 over Westcentral and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off south Orissa North Andhra Pradesh coasts with associated Cyclonic Circulation extending upto Midtropospheric level is currently lying over Orissa and neighbourhood.
There is an Off-shore trough from South Gujarat coast to Konkan & Goa coast.

The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, Gwalior, Rewa, Ambikapur, Centre of Low Pressure area and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

Weather over Saurashtra has been off and on sunshine and scattered showers for last two days.

Forecast:
The Low Pressure over Orissa is expected to track Northwestwards and by 8th September it would reach Madhya Pradesh. It is expected to track further towards North Gujarat -Rajasthan.

Central Gujarat, South Gujarat, and adjoining North Gujarat and Bhavnagar District will get heavy rains from 8th September to 11th September; and Saurashtra would get general round of rain from 9th September to 11th September. Rain quantum will be given later.

NCEP/GFS Bias-Corrected Precipitaion Forecasts



Forecast in Akila Daily dated 6th September 2010 @ 11.00 am.

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A Low Pressure area had developed yesterday over Westcentral and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off south Orissa North Andhra Pradesh coasts with associated Cyclonic Circulation extending upto Midtropospheric level. This System persists.
There is an Off-shore trough near Dwarka Okha Bay of Kutch area. Off-shore trough also runs from South Gujarat coast to Konkan & Goa coast.
The axis of Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Jaipur, Jabalpur,Raipur, Bhawanipatna, Centre of Low Pressure area and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

Farmers of Saurashtra are eagerly waiting for dry weather for harvesting Mung & Adad. The chances of dry weather for two three days at a stretch over Saurashtra is meager. Farmers should keep in mind the possibility of rains around 9th September.

Forecast:

Medium rainfall forecast for two days for Porbandar, Junagadh, Jamnagar District, Kutch and South Gujarat. Rest of Saurashtra can get scattered showers to light rain.

There is possibility of the Low Pressure from the Bay of Bengal to affect Saurashtra & Gujarat around 8th or 9th September. More deatils would be available within 48 hours.

Forecast in Akila Daily dated 4th September 2010

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Various areas of Rajkot has received between 2 to 4 Cms. of rain this afternoon. There has been report of widespread rain over coastal Saurashtra and vicinity mainly in Junagadh, Porbandar and Jamnagar and Rajkot Districts.


Forecast in Akila Daily dated 3rd September @ 11.00 am


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Rainfall over Saurashtra has been limited to coastal pockets of Saurashtra. There is an Off-shore trough along the Saurashtra coastline from Veraval to Dwarka. There is also a Mid-upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Kutch and vicinity.

Map from Thai Met Dept.


Forecast:

Some areas of coastal Saurashtra and vicinity to get medium rainfall for the next two days while rest of Saurashtra will have off and on sunshine and cloudy weather with scattered showers or light rain next two days.]]> http://www.gujaratweather.com/forecast/index.php?entry=entry100901-013011
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The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Phalodi, Centre of Low Pressure area over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan , Sagar, Umeria, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. There is an Off Shore trough from Saurashtra & Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. There is a Mid-upper Air Cyclonic Circualtion at 1.5 to 3 Kms. level above MP. Maharashtra border, Gujarat and vicinity.

There has been wide spread rainfall over Saurashtra, Kutch & rest of Gujarat during the last four days starting from 27th August 2010. The details are given hereunder:

27th August 7.00 am. to 31st August 7.00 am.

Whole Gujarat average rainfall 101 mm.

Saurashtra average rainfall 126 mm.

North Gujarat average rainfall 60 mm.

East Central Gujarat average rainfall 74 mm.

South Gujarat average rainfall 125 mm.

Kutch average rainfall 70 mm.

Various Districts of Saurashtra Details:

Amreli average rainfall 78 mm.

Bhavnagar District average rainfall 69 mm.

Jamnagar District average rainfall 143 mm.

Junagaadh District average rainfall 156 mm.

Porbandar District average rainfall 190 mm.

Rajkot District average rainfall 183 mm.

Surendranagar District average rainfall 86 mm.

Forecast:

Widespread rainfall will continue over Saurashtra & Kutch today and will decrease from tomorrow by quantum as well as coverage.

Here are two forecast model maps for GSF as well as GOES5 for the period from 27th August 2010 to 2nd September 2010. It shows cumulative of actual four days rainfall already occurred plus three days of forecast rainfall till 2nd. September.

As per the Maps Saurashtra & Konkan will get heavier rainfall compared to South Gujarat.

GSF Model: Use with Caution


GOES5 Model: Use with Caution
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Rainfall has occurred or started over many parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat accompanied with lightening/thunder today on second consecutive day.

MSL map from Thai Met Dept.
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The Low Pressure area has weakened over Madhya Pradesh. However, there is a Mid-Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Madhya Pradesh - Maharashtra border and adjoining areas and also extending over Gujarat.The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Bikaner, Ajmer. Satna, Daltonganj, Malda and thence Eastwards to Assam.

MSL Map from Thai Met Dept.


Mid-Upper Air Map from Thai Met Dept.


There is an Off Shore trough from Saurashtra & South Gujarat to Konkan, Goa running along Karnataka Coast and Kerala.


There has been widespread rainfall yesterday the 27th August 2010 over Saurashtra rainging from 2 Cms to 15 Cms. The heaviest rain being at Dhoraji 15.5 Cms., Upleta 9.1 Cms., Kodinar 8.0 Cms., Navsari 5.6 Cms., Silvasa 5.4 Cms., Surat 5.3 Cms. & Rajkot received about 4 Cms. of rainfall. There has also been rainfall over parts of Kutch too.

Monsoon is in active phase as can be seen from the Indian Monsoon Index in the chart below which shows above normal activity for the next two weeks:



NCEP/GFS Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts



Forecast in Akila Daily dated 28th August 2010 @ 11.00 am.

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The Low Pressure area over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh persists. The associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends upto Mid­-Tropospheric levels. Currently the Central Pressure is about 1000 Mb. The axis of Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anoopgarh, Jaipur,Bhopal,Wardha,Ramagundam, Centre of Low Pressure area and thence Southeastwards to Southeast Bay of Bengal.
There is a Mid-Upper level Cyclonic Circulation North of Kutch and an Off Shore trough from Saurashtra & South Gujarat to Konkan running along Karnataka Coast and Kerala Coast.

Rain Forecast from 27th August to 2nd Sepetember 2010:

Saurashtra:

60 % of Saurashtra will get 5 Cms. to 10 Cms. of Rain during the forecast period.

40 % of Saurashtra will get 10 Cms. to 15 Cms. of Rain during the forecast period. Heavy to very heavy Rainfall exceeding 20 Cms. can occur at a few Isolated places of Saurashtra region.

Gujarat:

South Gujarat will get 12 Cms. to 20 Cms. of Rain during the forecast period.

Central Gujarat will get 12 Cms. to 20 Cms. of Rain during the forecast period.

Other Areas:

Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, Goa and along Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh Border area and vicinity, 15 Cms. to 20 Cms. of Rain during the forecast period.


Note: Heavy to very heavy rainfall exceeding 25 Cms. can occur at a few Isolated places of all of the above regions including South & Central Gujarat.


NCEP/GFS Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts



Forecast in Akila Daily dated 26th August 2010 @ 11.00 am.





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The Low Pressure area over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh, with associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending upto Mid-Tropospheric levels persists.

Surprisingly the Axis of Monsoon trough has again shifted towards Mizoram as per IMD 5.30 am. Bulletin which states that "the axis of Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur, Karnal, Kanpur, Hazaribagh, Shantiniketan and thence Eastwards to Mizoram." Normally the Low Pressure System tracks along the Monsoon trough, so we have to see as to how things pan out for the next 24 hours as regards realignment of the Low with the Monsoon trough.

(Subesequently in their at 8.30 am. Bulletin IMD Says "The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anoopgarh, Dholpur, Sagar, Bramhapuri, centre of low pressure area and thence southeastwards to southeast Bay of Bengal." ) As expected the Axis of Monsoon trough has again aligned with the Low Pressure. Bolded part added at 4.00 pm.

There is an Off Shore trough that runs from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast.

Forecast:

South Gujarat & Central Gujarat: 25th to 27th August

Due to the Off-shore trough there will be medium rainfall over South Gujarat & Central Gujarat 25th to 27th August.

Saurashtra will have periods of sunshine with scattered showers during the forecast period of 25th to 27th August with light to medium rain along the Junagadh, Bhavnagar, Amreli Coastal areas and at a few Isolated places too.

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The Low Pressure area over the West Central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast, with associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending upto Mid-Tropospheric levels persists. As per IMD evening bulletin the axis of Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Delhi, Lucknow, Allahabad, Ambikapur, Bolangir, Centre of Low Pressure area and thence Southeastwards to Southeast Bay of Bengal. This means that the Eastern arm of the Axis of Monsoon trough has moved Southwards and aligned with the Bay Low.

Thai Met Dept. Map shows the Low



Now the Low has a path to move on.

Southern Peninsula
Past four days rainfall plus three days GFS forecast rainfall ending on 27th August 600Z - Use with caution


Southern Peninsula
Past four days rainfall plus three days GOES5 forecast rainfall ending on 27th August 600Z - Use with caution


Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 24th August 2010 @ 11.00 am.


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There is an Off-shore trough from South Gujarat to South Karnataka.

Developing Low Pressure area over Westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast has now developed. The associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends upto Mid-Tropospheric levels. The axis of Monsoon trough passes through Ferozpur, Patiala, Meerut, Kanpur, Balia, Patna, Bhagalpur and thence Eastwards to Assam.

From Thai Met Dept. 23rd August 2010 @ 12 UTC



Heavy rainfall has occurred over North India and along the foothills of the Himalayas.

Forecast:

The axis of Monsoon trough runs along the foothills of the Himalayas so the track of developed Low Pressure System will depend upon the alignment and strength of the Monsoon trough. The System is expected to linger in the Bay of Bengal for three four days before moving inland.

Rainfall will continue as per areas of North India & Peninsular India shown in the two maps posted on 21st August 2010. There is possibility of flooding in North India and possibility of landslides along the foothills of Himalayas.

South Gujarat & Central Gujarat: 23rd to 25th August

Due to the Off-shore trough there will be light/medium rainfall over South Gujarat & Central Gujarat 23rd to 25th August. Light rain is expected along the nearby Bhavnagar/Amreli Coast.

Rest of Saurashtra will have periods of sunshine with scattered showers during the forecast period of 23rd to 25th August.

Forecast in Akila Daily on 23rd August 2010 @ 12.00 pm.

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There has been scattered showers over Saurashtra during the last few days but nothing very significant.

Forecast For Saurashtra:
Scattered showers with periods of sunshine till 25th August 2010.

All India:

The axis of monsoon trough passes through Firozpur, Delhi Kanpur, Allahabad, Gaya, Behrampore and thence East-Northeastwards to Northeast Assam. There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. There is a Low Pressure area in the Bay of Bengal about 600 Kms. east of Tamilnadu Coast. This Low Pressure is expected linger in the Bay for at least four days. There is an unsettled weather condition at Mid-Upper level over a long stretch from Andhra to New Delhi along vicinity of 80 E.

Forecast:

Heavy rain along the foot hills of Himalyas and South India as shown in the two maps below.

Foot hills of the Himalayas & North India
Four days precipitation already recorded plus three days Forecast rain


Southern Peninsula
Four days precipitation already recorded plus three days Forecast rain


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