The Weather over Saurashtra has remained mainly dry during the month of August.
The Low Pressure from the Bay of Bengal has moved over land and is over Orissa and Chhatishgarh neighbourhood today. It is expected to track Westwards during the next two days.
The axis of monsoon trough passes through Anupgarh, Tonk, Shivpuri, Pendra, Center of Low pressure area and thence Southeastward to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
Forecast: The Monsoon trough runs from Konkan to Karnataka. The Western end of the Axis of Monsoon is expected to shift further Southwards. Saurashtra & Gujarat is expected to get rainfall under the cumulative effects of the above two Systems with the Low Pressure System coming from Orissa.
Rain Forecast period: 27th August to 2nd. September:
50 % of Saurashtra will get 4 Cms. 8 Cms. of rainfall.
25 % of Saurashtra will get 8 Cms. 10 Cms. of rainfall.
25 % of Saurashtra will get above 10 Cms. of rainfall.
South Gujarat will get 15 Cms. to 20 Cms. of rainfall.
North Gujarat will get rainfall mainly during 29th to 31st August.
Central Gujarat will get moderate rainfall.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 26th August 2009 @ 10.30 am.
Experimental Forecast:
All India Centers that will receive more than 20 Cms. of rainfall between 22nd. August 6.00 am. to 29th August 6.00 am.
DAHANU, AIJAL 20 Cms.
PARBHANI ,PANAMBUR 22 Cms.
SURAT 24 Cms.
DAMAN 26 Cms.
AHMADNAGAR, BULSAR 30 Cms.
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Current Weather Conditions on 25th August 9.00 pm.
Yesterday's Cyclonic Circulation over the Bay of Bengal has strengthened to a Low Pressure currently in vicinity of Coastal Orissa.
The axis of monsoon trough passes through Bikaner, Deesa, Jabalpur, Raipur, Center of Low Pessure area and thence Southeastward to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 25th August 2009 @ 2.30 pm.
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Current Weather Conditions on 24th August 2009 @ 10.30 am.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Bay Of Bengal
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 24th August 2009 @ 10.30 am.
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All India Seasonal Rainfall Upto 19th August 2009 from IMD
All India Seasonal Area Weighted Rainfall Upto 19th August 2009 is 463.4 mm. against normal of 627.5 mm. making it deficient by 26 %.
My observations:
Areas below All India Seasonal Average is listed below:
Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi 63% below normal
Telangana 59% below normal
Marathawada 50% below normal
Himachal Pradesh 49% below normal
West Uttar Pradesh 46% below normal
Jharkhand 42% below normal
Gujarat, East M.P. 37% below normal
Vidarbha, Coastal Andhra 37% below normal
Punjab & West Rajasthan 36% below normal
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura 36% below normal
Uttrakhand 32% below normal
Rayalseema 31% below normal
Chhatishgarh 30% below normal
West M. P. 29% below normal
Bihar, J & K 28% below normal
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Current Weather Conditions on 20th August 2009 @ 4.00 pm.
The Weather over Saurashtra is partly cloudy but no rainfall has occured during the last week. There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation near Kerala and another one over Marathawada. Convective clouds are present in the South Arabian Sea as well as along the Andhra Pradesh - Orissa Coast.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Karnal, Mukteshwar, Raxaul, Bhagalpur, Bangladesh and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
Weather will improve over Saurashtra with chances of scattered showers initially. Development of the System in South Arabian Sea during the next 48 hours will determine the rainfall outcome for Saurashtra.
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Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 17th August 2009
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Current Weather Conditions on 11th August 2009 @ 4.00 pm.
The South West monsoon has reactivated over Orissa, Chhatishgarh, M.P., Vidarbha, W.B. Bihar, Jharkhand. Monsoon activity will improve along Uttar Pradesh upto Punjab, Himachal Pradesh & Uttranchal Pradesh during next few days.
As per IMD: The axis of the monsoon trough has shifted slightly Southward and passes through Firozpur, Meerut, Kanpur, Daltengunj, Jamshedpur, Digha and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
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