Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Madhya Pradesh. The Northern Limit of Monsoon continues to pass through Lat. 22.0°N/Long. 60.0°E, Lat. 22.0°N/Long. 69.0°E, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Indore, Bhopal, Jabalpur, Ambikapur, Daltonganj, Gaya, Muzaffarpur and Raxaul.
This translates to Monsoon progressing over 25% of Madhya Pradesh today, 25% of M.P. having been covered earlier. Now total 50 % of Madhya Pradesh is covered by Southwest Monsoon. This is indeed a snail speed for progress of Monsoon.
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Current Weather Conditions on 1st July 2010 @ 10.30 pm
The weather over Saurashtra has been cloudy today with intermittent sunshine. Dense clouds with high Cloud Tops are seen over the Bay of Bengal in the vicinity of Coastal Andhra & Orissa Coast. Mid-Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation is also present in the same area.
Forecast for Interior Maharashtra 2nd to 5th July:
The Mid-Upper Air Circulation will come over Chhatishgarh by tomorrow and over Vidarbha on 3rd July giving heavy rainfall for Chhatishgarh, Vidarbha and along the Maharashtra M.P. border areas.
GSF Forecast Map for 4th July
Forecast for South Gujarat & Saurashtra 3rd July to 5th July:
The Mid-Upper Air Circulation will move very fast in one day from over Vidarbha on 3rd July to North Madhya Maharashtra - South Gujarat vicinity on 4th July. Heavy round of Rainfall is expected over South Gujarat - quantity 10 Cms. to 15 Cms. between 3rd to 5th July.
GSF Forecast Map for 5th July
50 % of Saurashtra is expected to get 3 Cms. to 5 Cms. of Rainfall and
50 % of Saurashtra is expected to get 5 Cms. to 8 Cms. of Rainfall during 3rd to 6th July.
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Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2010 @ 11.30 pm.
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Current Weather Conditions on 29th June 2010 @ 2.00 pm.
Saurashtra Farmers are in a dire state due to lack of needed rainfall for the Crop already sowed. IMD had declared that Monsoon had set in over Rajkot on 16th June 2010. However, there has not been any significant rainfall since then in the vicinity of Rajkot. Many Farmers will have to replant seeds after a good round of rainfall, since seed germination failed due to lack of moisture in the ground.
Some parts of Saurashtra especially Southern Saurashtra got a relief to their planted crops due to Hit & Miss round of scattered Rainfall on 27th June. Rainfall quantity was 1 Cms. to 6 Cms. with most of the places getting 3 to 4 Cms. This can be considered a welcome relief for Farmers of those areas since it will give some more time for their crop to survive till a satisfactory round of rainfall materializes.
Weather over Saurashtra is mainly dry for more than 10 days for major parts of Saurashtra especially Northern Saurashtra.
Forecast till 2nd. July 2010
Currently, the Weather over Saurashtra is not conducive good round of Rainfall. Only Scattered rainfall can occur mostly on the Coastal areas.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 28th June 2010
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26th June 2010 @ 10.00 am.
On June 25th IMD has updated the Southwest Monsoon 2010 Long Range Forecast. Updated Forecast is projecting 102% of Long Period Average Rainfall from the 98% of LPA Forecast in April 2010
Summary of the Update Forecasts for 2010 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
i) Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2010 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%.
ii) Monthly (July & August) Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole in the month of July 2010 is likely to be 98% of LPA and that in the month of August is likely to be 101% of LPA both with a model error of ± 9 %.
iii) Rainfall over Broad Geographical Regions
Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2010 Southwest Monsoon Season is likely to be 102% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over North-East India, 99% of LPA over Central India and 102% of LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.
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This Rainfall Forecast is an Experimental Product. Use with Caution.
Rainfall already recorded from 21st June 0600Z till 25th June 0600Z plus GSF Forecast Rainfall till 28th June 0600Z
Some places with more than 200 mm Rainfall during the above Forecast period:
Rainfall City Lat. & Long.
200.20 mm CUTTACK 20.47 85.93
205.08 mm GOPALPUR 19.27 84.88
214.84 mm CANNUR 11.83 75.33
219.73 mm ALIBAG 18.63 72.87
224.61 mm ANGUL 20.83 85.10
229.49 mm BOMBAY/JUHU 19.12 72.83
229.49 mm BOMBAY/SANTACRUZ 19.12 72.85
234.37 mm COCHIN (IN-NAVY) 9.95 76.27
234.37 mm FORT COCHIN 9.97 76.23
239.26 mm BHUBANESWAR 20.25 85.83
244.14 mm PURI 19.80 85.82
249.02 mm HUT BAY 10.58 92.55
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Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 25th June 2010 @ 9.00 am
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