Yesterday's Depression over the Central Arabian Sea has strengthened further to Deep Depression. Current location is 15.7N 63.8E about about 1050 Kms. West Southwest of Mumbai and about 900 Kms Southwest from Veraval & Porbundar. Winds are 65 to 75 Kms./Hour with Central pressure of about 996 Mb. The Wave height is 5 meters. This system is tracking mainly Northwards with little westward inclination. This system is expected to strengthen further to Cyclonic storm "PHET".
A western disturbace is expected to affect the track of this System and will track it North Eastwards after 36 hours, thereby the likely Landfall could be between Karachi to Kutch & Gujarat region.
Currently expect Scattered Hit & Miss Rain for Saurashtra till 6th June.
CAUTION:
Please refer/rely on Official IMD (Government) Forecasts regarding Cyclonic Storm and take precautions as required to safeguard life and property.
Forecast in Akila Daily dated 1st June 2010 @ 8.30 am
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Current Weather Conditions on 31th May 8.00 pm
Yesterday's Low Pressure over the East Central Arabian Sea has strengthened further two notches to a Depression. Current location is 15N 64E about 1100 Kms. West of Goa and about 1050 Kms. West Southwest of Mumbai. Winds are 55 to 65 Kms./Hour with Central pressure of about 1000 Mb. This system is tracking mainly Northwards with little westward inclination. Further strengthening is expected.
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Monsoon 2010 Developments:
31st May 2010 6.00 pm.
India Meteorological Department has declared the Onset of Monsoon over Kerala by citing various favourable conditions such as Rainfall at various stations; winds in the area from equator to Lat. 10ºN and Long. 55 ºE to 80ºE. should be of the order of 15 – 20 Kts. at 925 hPa.; & OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION (OLR) value should be below 200 wm-2 in the area confined by Lat. 5 -10ºN and Long. 70- 75ºE.
IMD says that the Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into most parts of South Arabian Sea, entire Kerala, South Tamilnadu and some more parts of Southwest Bay of Bengal today, the 31st May 2010.
The Northern limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat.12.0°N/
Long.60.0°E, Lat.12.0°N/ Long.70.0°E, Kannur, Salem, Nagapattinam, Lat.
12.0°N/Long. 84.0°E, Lat. 15.0° N/ Long. 87.0°E, Lat. 18.0° N/ Long. 90.0°E and Lat. 21.0° N/ Long.93.0°E. The map showing NLM as on 31st May 2010 is given below:
My Observations:
Although the South West Monsoon has been declared over Kerala, the rainfall quantity will not be spectacular due to the presence of a Depression over Central Arabian Sea at 15N. 64E. Convective clouds from the South Arabian Sea will be sucked into this System and Kerala will be deprived of much rainfall.
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Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 31st May 2010 @ 8.30 am
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Current Weather Conditions on 30th May 9.00 pm
A Low Pressure has developed in the East Central Arabian Sea and is expected to strengthen further. Current location is 14.5N 65E about 1000 Kms. West of the North Karnataka Coast. Winds are 35 to 40 Kms./Hour with Central pressure of about 1007 Mb.
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Current Weather Conditions on 29th May 2010 @ 8.00 am
The Maximum Temperatures have come down by 2 to 3 Degrees C over last four days over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. Maximmum Temperature for Rajkot for this time of the year is 40 Degrees C. Currently the Maximum temperatures at Rajkot is between 40 to 42 Degrees C.
Severe heat wave conditions prevailed over North West India, Vidarbha and parts of M.P. & U.P. Maximum temperatures of more than 45° C have been experienced in many parts of these regions. However, there has been partial relief from heat wave in many parts of the affected areas.
Forecast:
The Maximum Temperatures are expected to remain the same range till 2nd June for Saurashtra & Gujarat.
Monsoon 2010 Developments:
The Southwest Monsoon has set in over parts of South Bay of Bengal,
Andaman & Nicobar Islands and most parts of Andaman Sea on 17th May 2010. Monsoon further set in over most parts of South Bay of Bengal apart from some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal by 21st May.
The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) on 21th May as per IMD passes through Lat. 5°N/ Long. 70°E, Lat. 5°N/ Long. 75°E, Lat. 8°N/ Long 80°E, Lat. 12°N/ Long 84°E, Lat. 15°N/ Long 87°E, Lat. 18°N/ Long 90°E and Lat. 21°N/Long 93°E. NLM is the same till 28th May. IMD map showing NLM is shown here:
Monsoon has not progressed for the last one week. This is due to the disturbance of the Monsoon winds by Cyclone Laila. Monsoon winds are re-organizing. The strengthening of lower level westerlies and increased moisture content in the Arabian sea should set favorable conditions for onset of Monsoon over the South Arabian Sea by 30th May.
South Arabian Sea To Host A Low Pressure By 31st May/1st June 2010
Various Forecast Models indicate that a Cyclonic Circulation will form near the Kerala- Karnataka Coast around 30th May which is expected to strengthen further to a Low Pressure by 31st May. This Low is expected to track North North Westwards direction away from the Western Peninsula. Hence, the system is expected to strengthen further in hot Arabian Sea waters to at least a Depression. The winds South of the System will be like westerly. So, Kerala will get Monsoon winds but major chunk of the Moisture will be taken up by the Low pressure (Depression) System along with rest of the moisture restricted to Coastal Western Peninsula. IMD may declare the Onset of Monsoon over Kerala on 31st May.
Forecast track of this system will be given after the System develops.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 29th May 2010 @ 8.30 am.
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Current Weather Conditions on 24th May 2010 @ 9.00 am. IST
The Maximum Temperatures have broken record for current year at many places of Saurashtra Gujarat & Kutch. Maximmum Temperature for Rajkot for this time of the year is 40.5 Degrees C. However, the Maximum in Rajkot has been 44 Degrees plus for last three days. Highest having been recorded for Rajkot was 44.7 on 22nd May and it was the highest for May since 2004. Idar also created an all time record highest Temperature for May. Similarly five year and ten year Maximum temperature records have been created at many places in Saurashtra & Gujarat.
The Maximum Temperatures on 24th May at some of the places are as under:
Ahmedabad 44.9 Degrees C.
Rajkot 43.5 Degrees C.
Ganganagar 48.1 Degrees C.
Hissar 47.4 Degrees C.
Jaiselmer 46.9 Degrees C.
Kota 48.2 Degrees C.
Nagpur 47.3 Degrees C.
Forecast:
The Maximum Temperatures are expected to decline during the next few days by 2 to 3 Degrees, especially in the western Saurashtra upto Rajkot. The Eastern Saurashtra will have decline of about 2 Degrees. Gujarat will have 2 to 3 Degrees decline from the highest Temepratures that was prevailing during 21st 22nd May.
Rajkot can expect 40 to 41.5 degrees C.
Rajasthan, some parts of North India, U.P. , Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha will experience Severe Heat Wave for few more days.
Note: Live Tempratures or current weather data for Rajkot from RingRoad Weather Station will not be available till mid June 2010.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 24th May 2010 @ 9.00 Am. IST
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