The Low Pressure from the Bay of Bengal had tracked maily Westwards from Orissa, Chhatishgarh and yesterday was on Madhya Pradesh. This Low further tracked Westwards over North Gujarat and this morning was over Kutch. The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation ( UAC) was over whole Gujarat including Saurashtra and Kutch. Both UAC as well as the low will move over to Arabian Sea by tomorrow.
Rain quantum as well as coverage will reduce over Gujarat & Saurashtra from tomorrow.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 27th July 2010 @ 10.30 am.
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Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 26th July 2010 9.00 am.
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Current Weather Conditions on 24th July 2010 @ 5.30 pm
Low Pressure has developed over North West Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas. There is an UAC associated with this System upto Mid Troposhere.
Dense convective clouds are present over major parts of the Bay of Bengal as well as over Arabian Sea from Goa to South Gujarat. Convective clouds are present over Central India and parts of North India.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Bikaner, Sikar, Agra, Kanpur, Allahabad, Daltongunj, Chaibasa, Centre of the Low Pressure area and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. There is an off shore trough from South Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast.
The Low Pressure is expected to track mainly West Northwestwards direction over Orissa, Chhatishgarh, Vidarbha & Madhya Pradesh vicinity during the next 24 to 36 hours and then further towards Gujarat. The position of the Low as on 26th morning is shown in 850 Mb. plot.
Forecast:
Heavy rains are forecast for all Central States, till 26th and Konkan, Goa, Gujarat till 27th.
Here are two Experimental forecast maps from GSF and GOES-5. Use with caution. Let us see which model stands more accurate.
20th to 24th 0600z July Precipitation + 24th to 27th July 600z forecast Precipitation from NOAA GFS model.
20th to 24th 0600z July Precipitation + 24th to 27th July 600z forecast Precipitation from NOAA GOES-5 model.
Forecast in Akila Daily dayed 24th July 2010 @ 11.30 am.
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Current Weather Conditions on 22nd July 2010 @ 12.30 pm
There has been Extremely heavy rain over many parts of Saurashtra with some pockets of Gir area receiving Cloud burst intensity rainfall of over 20 Cms. Visavadar got a record 39.6 Cms. of rainfall yesterday.
Rainfall is expected to continue today. The extent of coverage will increase today. The interior areas will also get good rain. Catchment areas of Bhadar Dam is expected to get rain, so water level in Bhadar dam will increase.
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Current Weather Conditions on 20th July 2010 @ 4.00 pm.
Last week Rainfall over Saurashtra has been Scattered with Isolated Heavy downpour at a few places. Rajkot has received 5 to 8 Cms. of rain during the past week with heaviest rain of 5.5 Cms. yesterday in some parts of the City. There is an instance of Upleta receiving 19 Cm. in a day when adjoining Dhoraji town getting only 4 Cms. In short the rainfall pattern has been very uneven throughout Saurashtra. The Barometric pressure was 1004 to 1006 mb. on 14th July and currently has come down to 996 to 998 mb. at Rajkot.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, Gwalior, Satna, Ambikapur, Jharsuguda, Puri and thence Southastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. The upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining Northwest Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels persists.
Monsoon winds have strengthened over Arabian Sea and south peninsular India. There is an off shore trough from South Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast.
Weather conditions are good for rains to continue over Saurashtra. Initially scattered rainfall is expected to continue till 22nd. July and subsequently, the extent and quantum is expected to increase between 23rd to 26th July.
Forecast: 20th July to 26th July 2010
Saurashtra:
Coastal Saurashtra from Coast upto 40 Kms. Inland is expected to receive cumulative 10 Cms. to 15 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 15 Cms. of rainfall.
Rest of Saurashtra is expected to receive cumulative 5 Cms. to 10 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 10 Cms. of rainfall.
South Gujarat & North Gujarat:
South Gujarat expected to receive cumulative 12 Cms. to 20 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 20 Cms. of rainfall.
North Gujarat expected to receive cumulative 8 Cms. to 12 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 15 Cms. of rainfall.
Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan:
Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan are expected to receive cumulative 20 Cms. to 25 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 30 Cms. of rainfall.
North India:
Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, New Delhi Himachal Pradesh, North & Central Madhya Pradesh, East Rajastan are expected to receive cumulative 15 Cms. to 20 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 20 Cms. of rainfall. Also chances of landslide will increase due to heavy downpour. Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand will recieve moderate rainfall.
NCEP GSF Ensemble Precipitation Forecast for 20th to 26th July 2010
Forecast in Akila Daily dated 20th July 2010 @ 11.00 am.
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Current Weather Conditions on 15th July 2010 @ 4.30 pm.
Saurashtra has been receiving light scattered rainfall off and on during the last few days in line with forecast dated 9th July 2010 that there would be light scattered rain on 10th,11th 14th & 15th July and no rain on 12th & 13th July.
The Axis of Monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Agra, Satna, Jharsuguda and thence South-Eastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood extending upto Mid Tropospheric levels persists. The UAC is expected to move over to Madhya Pradesh by tomorrow.
15th to 17th July 2010:
Forecast for Saurashtra, North Gujarat & South Gujarat:
Saurashtra: Light rain to scattered showers durin g the forecast period.
North Gujarat: Medium rain with Isolated heavy rain during the forecast period.
South Gujarat:Medium rain during the forecast period.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 15th July 2010
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Current Weather Conditions on 9th July 2010 @ 8.30 pm.
Whole Saurashtra has received a good round of rainfall from 3rd to 9th July. Under the influence of upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending upto lower tropospheric levels over Central Uttar Pradesh,
the axis of monsoon trough has shifted northwestwards and now passes through Anupgarh, Churu, Lucknow, Patna, Bardwan, Canning and thence South-Eastwards to East Central Bay of Bengal.
Forecast for Saurashtra & Gujarat: 10th to 15th July 2010
There is an off shore trough from Saurashtra coast to Kerala coast and under its influence, medium rainfall is expected over Coastal regions of Saurashtra and South Gujarat.
Coastal Saurashtra & South Gujarat:
Medium rain on 10th,11th, 14th & 15th July and scanty on 12th & 13th July.
Rest of Saurashtra:
Scattered showers on 10th, 11th,14th & 15th July. No rain on 12th & 13th July.
Rain quantity for Saurashtra during the Forecast period:
10 % of Saurashtra will get 5 Cms. to 8 Cms. of rainfall
15 % of Saurashtra will get 3 Cms. to 5 Cms. of rainfall.
75 % of Saurashtra will get 1 Cms. to 3 Cms. of rainfall.
South Gujarat will get 10 Cms to 15 Cms. of rainfall during the forecat period.
Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 9th July 2010
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